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by sjbzbeiks4 days ago |
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upvoteby benrutter4 days ago|
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> Also, I gotta say I do not think Bitcoin is a bubble or whatever (IMO a real value there)

It's worth saying something with real value can still have a bubble - both bicycles and the internet were huge market bubbles at one time, but they're also undeniably valuable.

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upvoteby eru4 days ago|
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To play Devil's advocate:

Let's assume bitcoin has a tiny but positive probability of running the world economy in, say, 50 years. Ie bitcoin is a lottery ticket.

The fair value for a lottery ticket is some positive number. In 99.99..% of cases, the ticket will expire worthless. (In 0.00..1% of cases it will be worth quadrillions.)

The fair value of a lottery ticket is not a bubble, even if most lottery tickets expire worthless.

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Now, of course, it's still possible to overpay for lottery tickets. Eg if you buy an actual lottery ticket in retail, the whole transaction usually loses you at least 50 cents on the dollar for lottery taxes alone.

But that's a separate issue.

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upvoteby maxerickson4 days ago|
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You argument is that it could have some long term value, which is different than a lottery ticket (which has a calculable minimum expected value at time of purchase).
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upvoteby eru4 days ago|
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Slightly more abstract: my argument is that assets with a very skewed probability distribution of future value will have a positive current value, even if in the vast majority of cases, they'll be worthless in the future.

Lottery tickets were only an example.

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