No, it's an example of why you have to allow people to pursue what at the time look like "curiosities", even though most of them don't go anywhere--because the very small portion that do go somewhere, end up changing the world, and we don't know in advance which ones those are going to be.
It's quite true that the funds we have for this are a finite resource. But that doesn't mean that "foreseeable practical applications" is a useful filter for how to deploy that resource.
Of course someone was. Newton and Leibniz weren't living in autarky an some island. They had an income stream that was taken away from somewhere else and given to them so that they could afford working on their pet projects.
The fact that it's not publicly funded doesn't change the fact that there's still resource allocation happening.
This is an anachronism, you're projecting modern social organization to an era that worked very differently.
For the kind of research where benefits accrue to the inventor (or her employer) and others can be excluded so that the benefits don't 'spill over', then private companies can fund it.
For the kind of research that spills over, you can just let the tax payers of that other country foot the bill. Eg the US can free-ride on Chinese research, and if having mathematicians in the population is good, the US can offer green cards to whatever has a math degree from a good enough university.
There might be some intermediate research that has just enough spill over that a company won't do it, but a country might, should be a rare creature. And differently sized countries should have different sweet spots: some companies are bigger than some countries after all. But I don't think we see different countries select the research (mathematical or otherwise) with an eye towards exactly tailoring spill over.
>useful filter
There's also "useful friction" as _almost_ imagined by Tao here
https://youtu.be/svl_1upFpQo?t=25m11s
We can't know in advance, but something like the "weird cadence" that arises when 2 skilled humans try to do a threesome with an AI..
could be reified into a local measure (eutripsis) of how likely advances (conceptual or otherwise) are in the midterm
1. You may not agree, but some people will argue that knowledge is worth accumulating in itself. We fund astronomy well beyond the solar system despite there being no real prospect of practical applications.
2. The value of calculus justifies the cost of all the curiosities. The economic benefits of funding lots of "curiosities" was well worth the few that were useful.
There are a lot of immediate practical benefits to learning more about the physics and chemistry of the universe beyond our solar system.
can you imagine chucking all of computer science away because Babbage's thinking machines and Lovelace's programming cards didn't really result in meaningful capital gains here in FY26Q3? or, a more realistic example - imagine biology and genetics today if Mendel's discoveries had been published in a more widely read journal, if he hadn't been outright dismissed for his mathematical approach. or Semmelweis' advocacy of antispetic procedures that flew in the face of the then humors-based understanding of medicine in the 1800s - how many lives would have been saved between then and when Germ Theory finally took off decades later?
it's ironic to me that it's often the same people who'll adopt the logic of banning reproductive rights on the off chance that someone very unprepared to have a child might birth someone who can cure cancer in spite of the probabilistic evidence of SES being highly correlated with educational attainment (eg that graph of the income bracket that the parents of all Nobel Prize winners start with). and yet when it comes to the actual nascent research and development required to pave the way for larger discoveries, that's seen as totally pointless and not worthy of funding. it's truly flabbergasting
In saying that, in the spirit of a good faith argument, is there value in temporarily deprioritising pure research in (current) times of funding drought?
Granted for the sake of argument. But our AI overlords are really good at accumulating that knowledge, and very patient in explaining it to us.
That is totally not true. I am sure you can hardly name even one of those "curiosities" that later turn out to be useful and not "free" (i.e. if not existed, wouldn't be invented on the spot as a tool for solving those particular problem that they end up solving).
Calculus (e.g. differentiation), for example, is mind-blowing when taking it seriously, and not only useful.
The idea of "speed at an infinitely short moment", for example, is philosophy!
It just so happens that certain kinds of mathematics are unreasonably effective in drawing parallels to the physical world, but as far as mathematicians are concerned those mathematics are neither better nor worse than those that do not correspond to anything tangible.
A sweeping generalization. I certainly know professional mathematicians who disagree.
Also: many consider “inter-connectedness”, not “tangible” to be a sign that a topic is interesting. That is, it touches branches of mathematics aside from its own.
Are you proposing that humanity should rely on AI to determine the fields of study that should be perused and those that should be defunded?
Why don't you first come up with an AI that can predict if the stock market will go up or down tomorrow, with 99.999% accuracy. Should be really simple as it only needs to answer what will happen tomorrow.
After that, come up with the AI that will predict how actions or non-actions today may affect outcomes 100 years into the future.
We already have examples of politicians relying on chatbots to understand problems. I wouldn't be at all surprised if, given a few more years, the above will be effectively the case without any deliberate effort.
Most of these aren’t even new inventions; read about the working conditions in the 19th century.
Define basic survival. Tantalum mine worker in the Congo who earns 22 cents per hour and raises his three children on that money, is he under "basic survival" level or below?
And to be clear, as a part of a society, are you ready to forgo your salary, except maybe 1 dollar per hour, to provide to other people? Why haven’t you done it yet?
The amount of money that current local economy can provide to everybody sustainably, given the appropriate arrangements in the system.
We have natural experiments of this: retirees, both early and otherwise. Do retirees during the first five years of their retirement "find productive work voluntarily" (your choice of words, not mine) in quantities that are comparable to what they did at work during the five years prior to their retirement? Not exceptional individuals, but on average.
I retired circa five years ago and spend my time doing stuff like walking the dog, drinking coffee and reading books, much like other retirees. My productivity is as close to zero as I can muster, and it is the rule, not the exception.
But also, in all honesty, if we can feed and shelter everyone on the planet with only a small proportion of the population engaged in productive labor, what's the problem with most people walking the dog, drinking coffee, and reading books?
Go on, please. Whatever argument you make, please account for early retirees as well.
> if we can feed and shelter everyone on the planet with only a small proportion of the population engaged in productive labor
But that is not the premise of the discussion at hand, though. My comment was written in this specific context:
>>> My argument is that most people only veg out because they are tired of a hectic work life, but if given the chance to coast for a long time they would find productive work voluntarily
On how to select what to fund in the future: find the brightest minds, fund whatever they want to do. That tends to work out in aggregate
It would have been worth what? Doing mathematical research at all? Nobody is suggesting we shut down mathematical research.
It doesn't justify a funding system that didn't exist / didn't fund those researchers. We need to come up with better reasons to fund such a thing.
The work that Newton and Leibniz did was in formalizing it and coming up with the notation that would end up being more widely accepted and applicable. It's very likely that the techniques would have been developed later to solve a practical problem.
It's not “survivorship bias”, it's merely the illustration that mathematics are a strong link problem: it's the strongest result that determines the impact of the field (not the weakest, like in weak-link problems).
You're effectively asking to predict the future hundreds of years in advance. Nobody and nothing can do that. With math, as with all science, you must be willing to accept that not everything will be a hit. There will be misses, and often the same person will generate both hits and misses, because it's fundamentally unpredictable what remains a miss and what doesn't over centuries. The best demonstration of this is that your own thinking here would've banned the invention of calculus: it didn't materially affect daily life for a solid century.
Really? Like what?
edit: this is either an unfalsifiable claim, because by "forgotten" you meant here is no extant knowledge or remaining record of it, or it's almost certainly nonsense and anything you could cite would be foundational to some area of modern mathematics, even if as a disproven counter theory.
Now, it's possible that Fermat thought he had a proof of his theorem, but that it would have turned out to be wrong. That happens sometimes. But he did not write it down on any document that has survived to this day, so we know that he had something that has been lost.
It's similar to history. We know that there are books, plays, etc. that used to exist, but that nobody knows today. Because other writings that have survived to this day quote from them. But beyond the quote, we don't know anything else about the play or the book or whatever.
Fermat's Last Theorem almost certainly isn't the only case of mathematical theories that we know were published somewhere but that we have no record of today. It's just the only one that I happen to know about, not being a mathematician myself. I'm sure there are some people on HN who know of others.
Ah yes, lets take the existing system that's already barely holding up and flood it with slop. What could go wrong?
> Since we lack the resources to fund every PhD with a crazy theory on what the next new subfield ought to be, how do we decide?
Do away with the perpetual uncertainty of the "will we or won't we continue to fund you" grant treadmill for practicing academics. Hold a yearly competition of academic prowess and intelligence open to any adult US citizen under retirement age. Award the winners a grant good for 40 years. If we allocated slots equal to 0.005% of the population each year (ie ~17k) that would represent 0.2% (ie 1 per 500) of the population in total at any given time.
Obviously I say that (mostly) in jest but clearly there are workable solutions if we approach things from a new angle instead of determinedly clinging to the status quo.
If it’s slop they can just safely ignore it and keep on doing business as usual
Survivorship bias is literally just how invention happens.
No one strikes gold on the first swing.
How can we hope to quantity the expenditure on math we've collectively forgotten? It's unknowable by definition. The only reasonable thing to do is to determine the value added after the expense paid. Even in a world where calculus is the only thing that we took away from the math of 1700s my guess is that this is still an economically beneficial calculation.
It's not "forgotten" in the technical sense that one _can_ still go dig into the dusty archives of any number of old university libraries, and review learned journals, diaries, commonplace books, personal correspondence, and so on from the 1700s that describe the mathematical work of the day in detail.
You can then systematically review that work, and test whether the claim that "nearly all mathematical output of the 18th century has been generally forgotten and never found any use."
I hypothesize that this experiment will show that nearly all of the mathematical output of the time long ago fell into oblivion. This is a falsifiable claim.
You redefine "forgot" to make it falsiable, but also neglect that you need to refute that some "forgotten" work didn't contribute to new work down the line.
As is almost all of human endeavor.
The direct use of that math to biuld better weapons. That math was/is essential to the development of modern artillery. The first tasks assigned most early computers were to calculate ballistic trajectories, and also tide tables which also have immense military applications. Math was and is a weapon.