https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/there-are-now-17000-sa... "It does indeed start to look pretty dicey by mid-century."
replyThe report itself https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Envi...
About pricing: https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/17/the-era-of-...
If the report is predicting 100 years in the future, are we really "to the brink" now? Not to mention the decay time of these LEO is in months, hardly a kessler syndrome scenario.
replyThe report says we will be in trouble in 10-20 years, not 100. Look under "collisions causing collisions". Debris from previous collisions increases the risk of future collisions.
reply> If we are on the brink of Kessler Syndrome in LEO I would expect market pricing to reflect that.
replyWouldn't the market pricing only reflect this after that fact? Up until it happens and no one knows any better, business will continue as usual because otherwise numbers don't go up. Like any past financial crisis, things look fine until they don't.
almost positive Kessler LEO will be triggered by Russia taking out a cluster by the end of the decade
replySame. Somehow first 50% of mass to orbit was woke science and next 50% is fascist oppression.
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