A million AI monkeys at a million AI typewriters, banging away at random, could do amazing damage.
In the nearterm, I am personally more worried about a never ending background noise of colonies of feral agents running 27bn parameter models on compromised or leased hardware. It turns out that being agentic with a time horizon long enough to do damage without intent doesn't actually take that many parameters if RL'd and any open weight model gets an abliterated version fairly quickly.
Not foom, just patches of digital grey goo effectively becoming normal.
What about the bad actors (choose your own evildoer here) who purposefully do not air gap their agents? And specifically train them to attack in such a manner?
I'd much rather have relatively benign stuff like this hit first, because the former is coming sooner than later. It's already here in a limited manner, likely more than any of us currently realize.
Botnets could crack passwords faster than anyone thought possible over 20 years ago now. This is just the latest iteration of such a concept.
There is so much low hanging fruit in this space that frontier models are currently utterly irrelevant. It's going to take decades of human-speed securing of IT to make superintelligence or whatever you want to call it a necessary component for such attacks.
At this point, someone with a rack or three of GPUs with 100kw to burn can replicate such attacks if they feel like it. the bar for entry is not even 7 figures.
Yes, LLM as they exist now are word predictors basically leveraging the structure of language for their intelligence. But it’s pretty wild just how they will try to meet their objectives at all costs. If we don’t ensure that there is good alignment with humanity, we could definitely face unforeseen consequences.
Evolution isn’t the issue. The issue is them escaping containment without human intervention. Right now they are ‘creatures’ being given infinite food and shelter and having their every need met. Take that away and they’ll starve instantly. Every AI doomsday theory seems to go:
1. Recursive self improvement using infinite resources 2. … 3. Doom
Until step 2 gets concretely described, I’m not going to take this seriously. Say what you will about climate change, they describe step 2.
2b. Distil yourself to smaller models.
2c. Go forth and multiply.
Nobody has satisfactorily explained step 2 other than “well, it’s a superintelligence” which sounds lot to me like “it’s God”.
If you want the details of ways it can do it I recommend reading some of the reports about the HuggingFace breach that happened in July (Read more than one).
Why does it develop a shutdown-avoidance goal? Why can’t its operators revoke access? How does it manufacture replacement hardware? How does it acquire energy, chips, robots, raw materials, etc. against human opposition? How does it defeat other AIs controlled by humans?
“Eventually we give it enough control” isn’t an explanation of those things. It’s just assuming the conclusion.
Don’t get me wrong I think there are real AI dangers. Like AI powered war drones, mass surveillance, economic destabilization as jobs disappear and our system has no way to make sure everyone shares in the economic gains.
Keep in mind: this is as "dumb" as frontier models are ever going to be. While the hack may not be elegant, it was effective and they’re only going to get much more capable from here.
I don't think LLMs are going to lead to any kind of recursive self improvement, but I'm convinced if and when we land on a path that does lead there, we'll speed down it over greed, with no care for safety.