Most of the impressive accomplishments we’ve seen in the last few months have been the result of huge agent swarms working together and brute-forcing solutions, not massive leaps in intelligence from standalone models. That is still an improvement in the usefulness and power of the technology, but it is NOT evidence that model intelligence is increasing faster than before.
replyI don't have any access to any agent swarms (and neither do most) and i still think the models have obviously improved massively in standalone intelligence. Of course they have, agent swarms are not magic. You can swarm all you want around GPT-4 era models and you'll get nowhere. And i've never seen the term 'brute-force' more abused than these LLM discussions. Basically none of the results have been brute force.
replyAgreed. You can’t “brute force” reality, which has an infinitely large state space. A million monkeys won’t write Shakespeare and all that
reply"This machine-intelligence stuff is overrated, they are just using <insert particular machine-intelligence technique here>" isn't the resounding verdict it may have sounded like when you typed it.
replyNot that they've hit it but that they are approaching it. The time to panic and steer the narrative is before you hit the iceberg, not after
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replyPeople have been saying this since GPT-4.
replyHave we honestly seen that great a leap in the last 6 months, or just better application of what we had 6 months before that.
replyWe are seeing multiple frontier models dropping on the same day and no one bats an eye, because it's more of the same.
The difference between 6 months ago frontier and now frontier in 3d modelling, graphics and video editing is night and day.
replyJust because there are new capabilities, doesn't mean they've pushed passed the plateau, they've just expanded where the previous solutions work.
replyWe've gone from 80% in some places to 80% in some more places.
> We've gone from 80% in some places to 80% in some more places.
replyAny area that is verifiable will trend inexorably towards 100% over time. In unverifiable areas, it'll always be "80%" because the ubiquity of "AI" style erodes its value, and ">80%" for unverifiable things involves fashion, cachet and "vibes" that humans will probably never knowingly let it have.
Just checked your website, you really drank all the koolaid huh?
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