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> Yet the AI safety doomers have basically never been right either, but nobody seems to mind that;

I don't think that nobody seems to mind that. Pro-AI people make fun of doomers because of their failed predictions of apocalypse at least since GPT-2 days.

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Absolutely, I mean, you can count me in that group. However, it seems like AI safety concerns have only grown more fierce since then, so I'm not sure what difference it makes. Clearly no amount of practical evidence will convince the safety doomers because obviously the apocalypse is just around the bend, and no amount of evidence will convince the AI skeptics because the crash is just around the bend.

I think both predictions are actually just inevitabilities when you think about it, because surely super intelligence would actually be an existential threat, and surely if AI speculation continues to grow exponentially it surely must overshoot the true value at some point (if it hasn't already) and thus crash back to reality.

Zitron's position is harder to defend because of course, it is physically possible for LLMs to be the most valuable thing humans have ever invented. I kind of don't think so... but it's possible.

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