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That still requires perfect timing. Getting the timing right on a long-term contract is even harder than with a short-term contract!
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How does buying long term put options require perfect timing? The whole point of a long term put option is that you only have to be right at some point between when you buy it and when it expires.
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No, put options suffer from time decay and IV crush. A $1,000 MU put for December 2027 was at about $200 today. So if Micron dropped tomorrow, you'd probably start making a bit of money, although the delta is only -0.32. But if you held all the way to December 2027, Micron would then have to drop all the way to $800 before your position is profitable.

When and how that transition happens is subject to a number of complex factors, and it's not even necessarily the case that incremental drops in the stock will produce incremental gains for your put option.

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This is a really bizare argument for anyone who actually knows about options and trades them. If your thesis is that RAM is in a massive bubble and Micron is going to crash when it bursts, you don't express that thesis by buying a put struck around Micron's current bubble price. The fact that you chose a $1000 strike as your example is weird because that's basically the most expensive way to make the argument you're supposedly making.

"IV crush" is an especially strange objection in this context. IV crush matters when you buy options at elevated implied volatility and that volatility collapses. If Micron suddenly drops hundreds of dollars because the alleged bubble is bursting then the implied volatility would sharply rise, which makes your put more valuable, not less. Invoking "IV crush" here mostly makes it sound like you've heard the terminology without thinking through how it actually applies to the scenario you're describing.

If you genuinely think Micron is going to collapse sometime over the next two or three years because this entire RAM shortage is an overhyped bubble, then the obvious trade is to buy puts around where you think the stock should return to once that bubble disappears. Micron wasn't remotely a $1000 stock before this run. We can be generous and use a $300 strike since even though that's still 100% higher than Micron's price prior to this run-up, it gets the point across.

A long dated $300 put is currently around $7 per share, so one contract costs roughly $700. If Micron eventually falls to $200, that contract is worth $10000 at expiry. At $100, it's worth $20000. If the crash happens well before expiry, it can be worth even more than its intrinsic value because there's still time value left.

If you're claiming to be certain that a gigantic bubble is going to burst and wipe hundreds of dollars off the stock price, there are long-dated, far-out-of-the-money puts specifically capable of expressing that view. Pointing at an expensive $1000 strike put and saying "look, options are complicated" is not a counter-argument. It's just a weird or rather superficial misunderstanding of some financial concepts.

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The point of LEAPS is you don’t have to perfect the timing. You buy far enough out to avoid theta decay, and far enough out of the money to minimize risk.
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Regardless of timing, for shorts to pay out requires the market to actually correct itself. You won't be able to get your magical shorts money until the price of ram goes back down anyway. The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
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The price of RAM does not need to come down in order for a way-out-of-the-money January 2027 put on NVDA to increase in value from its current purchase price.
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You're suggesting gambling that Nvidia will start to fall within the next 3 months? That sounds like requiring perfect timing to me.
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