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The post admits this, first in the summary: "However, Burning Man’s near zero death rate over its existence is abnormal, and likely due to selection bias of healthier attendees and other confounding demographic factors".

Then again in the final sentence: "The more likely explanation for the remaining gap is something no demographic slicing can capture. Burning Man selects for healthier people who are willing and able to spend a week in the desert heat, regardless of their age, race, or income bracket."

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so the comparison is pointless by their own admission
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It's not pointless to figure some things out just because you can't figure everything out.
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on the other hand, burning man seems to select for people who want to win a darwin award, so i'm kind of surprised at the low death rate.
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Yeah this article is oblivious in such a painful way. The author should really consider their relationship with statistics, which they seem to think govern the world rather than are an abstract extraction from it.

Burning Man has a hugely skewed age demographic, one that has a significant share of deaths due to car+other accidents, suicide, overdose, homicide, and cancer. Like nearly 7/10 chance of dying from once of those.

Beside cancer those are all strongly linked to poverty, and cancer death in younger adulthood may be linked to poverty.

The place certainly has extremes but it’s also a destination where people go with groups and have basically a nanny state watching them.

Inane work, op.

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Article mentions age demographics and "selection bias of healthier attendees and other confounding demographic factors" right at the top.

Oblivious in such a painful? I'm still open to hearing a sound argument to back that up. Your arguments are more dismissive and did not address anything specific in the article you disagreed with.

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Did you bother to read the article? This is covered.
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> Comparing Burning Man to outdoor music festivals would be so much more accurate.

It probably wouldn’t be very interesting though, since those are too similar. One or two deaths over a three-day festival with some tens of thousands of people attending is completely normal even in highly regulated environments like the German mega-festivals.

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The similarity is precisely what would make it an interesting comparator.

I don't have time to research this fully, but the first few papers that popped up showed that a lot of the casualty events from music festivals are due to incidents like mass stampedes or even motor vehicles, which I suspect would be much lower at Burning Man. On the other hand, deaths from drug overdose or "structural collapse" are probably higher at Burning Man.

Comparing like-for-like, or as close as you can get, is what enables these interesting comparisons. Pointing out that you're less likely to die of cancer or car crashes while attending burning is not helpful when you compare against population level statistics.

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The kinds of drugs people at burning man prefer to take are not very likely to lead to death from overdose.
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