upvote
I know some people whose work was already almost completely eliminated by AI (language translation) and they're not doing great. Reality is there's no-one out there looking out for you except yourself and very close family/friends.
reply
Just curious, what kind of jobs did they transition to? Or were they forced to take a break, or left in job application hell, etc?
reply
Doing mostly language tutoring last I checked.
reply
I know a language translator (Japanese/English) who is doing very well out of AI screwing up and causing damage.
reply
This might be the savior for software developers
reply
So obviously each college is different. And your experience is not mine.

But my college did not train me to get a job the first time. Indeed they explicitly explained to us that that was not their goal. That was helpful because up to then we did think they were doing job training.

What they actually set out to do was make us "smarter" people. In the sense that they taught us to analyze problems, work in teams, find creative solutions. They taught us about research and critical thinking, and logic and so on. How to hypothesize, test, evaluate, adapt.

You don't need to go back to college to learn all that again. You already know it. Skills are easily, and quickly taught and learned. That's the easy part. The hard part is approaching a job as a problem to solve- how and where to add value. Value people will pay for.

Look around you. See unmet needs. Figure out what you need to do to meet those needs. That's the real challenge we face going into this next era.

reply
I don't know where you are, but when I hire mechanical engineers, I hire them from universities with accredited engineering programs. It's actually a legal requirement for the job in my jurisdiction. And if those engineers decide they want to become daycare teachers or knee surgeons, they do have to go back to university and re-train, even though they already learned how to think the first time.
reply
There are many fast-track teaching certification programs for people who already have a university degree https://tntpteachingfellows.org/

Healthcare is another growing field that's easy to get into with only 1- or 2-year certification programs for some positions.

reply
Is that true for healthcare careers that don't have abysmal quality of life? All of the nurses I've known are working 60 hour weeks, night shifts, etc.
reply
Pharmacy techs work regular hours.

Good pay, low barrier to entry, pleasant. Pick two.

reply
deleted
reply
Did you graduate yesterday? Have you actually lived in the world?

My unmet needs are $2.5k rent and $2k childcare, per month. Then there's food, healthcare, car payments. There is pretty much zero wiggle room for us.

reply
Only $2.5K rent? That's like free these days. For what though. I rented a 4K sq ft house in Charlotte three years ago and now paying $3.5K for not a modern 2bdr in Miami proper.
reply
For sure! Still more money than I can fathom bringing in if software engineering went away tomorrow.

1300 sq ft house with a big yard for the toddler.

reply
I keep telling my 22y who graduated from a university last year to go to a trade school (HVAC/ electric, plumbing). Too late for me as these require apprenticeships in the US.

My HVAC contact in FL needs a $100 just to sniff the AC/boiler closet. That is, if I can get him to show up. I don't even know if he's licensed here, but he's definitely very experienced.

reply
1100 a month in Kansas City and $800 a month in Denver. Everybody wants to live on the coast.
reply
If you're unemployed, you won't need to pay 2 grand/month for someone else to watch your children, and you don't have to pay San Francisco rents if you're not working there.
reply
I don't think "just give up your existing community and move" is a viable option. That defeats the whole point since at that point the retraining isn't allowing you to maintain your quality of life.
reply
It is a viable option. "Quality of life" is a luxury and programmers no longer belong to the class that can afford it. Do what everyone else does and go wherever the jobs are and live at whatever quality the market decides that you deserve.
reply
San Francisco is where the jobs are, and dropping your entire social network on the floor at exactly the moment you need it the most to help you is not good advice.
reply
I think you are missing the point of the discussion. The idea behind "just retrain" rhetoric is effectively "new technology won't destroy people's quality of life because they can just retrain!". If quality of life isn't maintained, then there is no reason to retrain at all, people can just get a minimum wage job and live in poverty.
reply
The rhetoric was a lie. Capitalists lie. That new technology always creates a surplus of newer, better jobs and quality of life always improves for everyone was a lie. That you can "just retrain" and everything will remain the same was a lie.

Even if you "retrain" your quality of life will go down because the market value of your life will go down as automation and AI improve, unless you're a member of the capitalist class. Which, if you need to work for a living at all, you aren't. No matter what you do unless you're personally wealthy your quality of life will go down. That's just what an efficient market does to most people, and AI is going to make the market brutally efficient.

reply
I wonder how many sectors this will have to happen to until workers realize that nobody's safe. I was shocked to see journalists at major firms peddling the 'just learn to code' line a few years back, given how much their industry had contracted in the decades before.
reply
> just give up your existing community and move" is a viable option.

That’s been how humanity has always worked, human migration is probably the largest single driver of social change in human history

Millions of people migrate every year today, I’m not sure what you think the alternative is

reply
No, it isn't. This is an incredibly modern phenomenon. We see examples of peoples moving en masse throughout history, yes, but the idea that everyday individuals should expect to leave their community is an incredibly recent one. Such would have seemed monstrous to people even a few hundred years ago. Fun fact: Socrates wasn't actually sentenced to death, he was sentenced to death or exile, and chose death over having to leave his home behind.

> Millions of people migrate every year today

A just society that doesn't force them to.

reply
I'm interested in how you expect someone to attend school/retrain without childcare. You can't generally bring your kids to class with you.
reply
In some other countries family generally takes this role: grandparents look after them
reply
deleted
reply
Your solution to childcare is permanent unemployment?

This is Denver rent actually, and increasingly most urban centers.

reply
People don't get a degree in "generic doing things people want". They generally get one focused on a particular field.

If someone's degree is in computer science, they're not going to be a good fit to be, say, an accountant or a nuclear engineer.

reply
This works if you're interested in running a business, but what well paying work doesn't require a degree or some kind of formal training certification?
reply
People in tech change roles and careers all the time. The vast majority of role or career changes do not involve going back to college.

I would even recommend against going back to college unless someone has an extremely compelling case for a career change that requires it and the conviction to see it through.

I'm hesitant to give examples because I know every example I give will be met with objections from "But I don't want to do that job" or "What if that gets replaced by AI too?". Look around you and you can should be able to identify some adjacent roles where you at least have an understanding of what the works like and you could learn the rest by taking on gradually more responsibility.

There are a lot of jobs out there that aren't exciting, don't pay SWE level salaries, but nevertheless pay enough to support a family as evidenced by all of the people doing those jobs who support their families. Not every company or industry is interested in squeezing maximum efficiency out of their employees. I have friends in highly bureaucratic roles who care about their jobs and do it well, but their work is amazing simple and easy. It requires nothing more than being a responsible adult who can show up to the office and get things done. These jobs are everywhere and I don't think they're going to disappear.

I don't think SWE is going to disappear either, but it will look a lot different in years to come. If you can't or won't adapt to the new normal, one of those boring alternative careers might be worth pursuing.

reply
>The vast majority of role or career changes do not involve going back to college.

That was possible pre-2022 during the famous developer labor shortage. In the current market, companies expect seniority/experience in that specific stack they use for that, no more career changers.

They either take you as a senior/expert to contribute from day one, or as a young and cheap newgrad/junior out of uni they expect to train on the job, but no more in-betweeners switching careers as they're not as experienced as the seniors on the market, nor are they as cheap and malleable as newgrads/juniors.

Sure, in theory every developer can learn at home to do anything new related, but in the current job market, companies expect X-years of proven on the job experience with their stack, no more bootcampers, and no more self-taught-at-home types. The entry bar has risen significantly. At least where I live.

Like I just saw on linkeidn a job posting from a large bank that was an hour old and it already had 100 applications, which probably means most applications are now AI botted, meaning yours will get lost in the noise and getting a call back for an actual interview is like rolling a dice.

Not saying it's impossible to change(I did a couple of times), just that's it's much more difficult than in the good times, and will most likely also come with a paycut.

reply
I guess where I'm coming from is that I currently am trying to change careers. Everything I'm finding is either a 50% pay cut or is simply unwilling to consider anyone without 5-10 years of experience in that particular industry. Since I've already built a life here I can't really just move and a 50% pay cut isn't enough to live anywhere near a comfortable life; particularly since I have medical expenses that aren't covered by insurance.
reply
Just like everyone else. I have a feeling your definition of “livable” is not in line with the reality that most people face. You share more in common with a stay-at-home mom going back to school to become a phlebotomist than you think. It’s just pride gets in the way
reply
A stay-at-home mom isn’t bringing any income in so has the luxury of being able to fail.

Whereas many of us can’t take a loss of income for months while we retrain.

reply
I don't get it. Didn't you live way below your means so you can save up money for retirement? I've got enough money saved to get away with being jobless for about a decade.
reply
Is that in cash, so if the stock market drops 80%, it's still true?
reply
If the stock market drops 80% and stays there for longer than a year it's Great Depression 2.0. Retraining won't do jack shit. There'll be breadlines, governments paying people to dig ditches and build trails in national parks.
reply
Not everyone's had the luxury of saving for years and years. Some people just got into the industry (remember 'learn to code'? not to mention recent graduates), others had to work their way up through lower-wage roles (e.g. contracting) just to get to a place from where they could hope to save. Other people have family to take care of and can't just throw everything into their savings.
reply
Even back when I had to make do with $400 a month I was saving. Live out of a van to save on rent if you have to. There's always a way to live below your means and save.

Of course there are exceptions, but I don't expect those to apply to anyone commenting here.

reply
You don't have any buffer at all? You're spent your entire inflated software developer salary for the entire time you've had it?
reply
Not enough buffer to take 3-5 years to rebuild a career is not the same as no buffer at all. Personally I have about a year of buffer which is no where near enough to meaningfully retrain.
reply
The same way clerical and manufacturing workers retrained when their jobs were replaced by computers/the Internet and robots. That is to say, most won’t.
reply
Well, a lot of them retrained into call-centre type of jobs.

Then the call centre jobs offshored (and now are being replaced by AI).

reply
The trick is not to start in software and have something to fall back in to.

In my case that’s mathematics in academia so I’m going to be starving to death.

reply
I started from sweeping floors and making survey calls at minimum wage. I think you can teach Math to high school students.
reply
Have you checked how much high school teachers actually make? It's not much.
reply
Still better than sweeping floors definitely. And you can work as tutors if you are good with kids.
reply
you know I would go back to cleaning toilets if it paid the same as staring at a screen
reply
Actually that's not generally true. Janitors at least work 12 months a year, many schoolteachers are paid ~9 despite being expected to work through them (on lesson prep &c).
reply
I would like to know the answer to this, too.

Not really sure what I should be doing on the side since AI seems to be automating a lot of work that I do as an analytics engineer. Maybe in 10 years all I'm doing is feeding in markdowns and project specs to an LLM and reading test outputs. At what point are you just a technician?

reply
We are mostly already doing that now as DE.
reply
Senior devs shouldn't really need to retrain aside from learning how to use coding agents. The agents automated away the entry-level stuff.
reply
I have a friend who is a skilled UX designer and UI artist.

He works at Best Buy now.

reply
Lately I've been just thinking of hitting ALT+F4 on life for good, as a big FU to the megacorps (not that they would care, but it would give me the satisfaction at least)
reply
There’s so much more you can do to get back at megacorps that will hurt them more than that. 1 less person in the world to oppose them is a win for them.

I’ve never met you but based on your last 10 HN comments I think the world would be worse off without you in it.

reply
Just ALT+F4 on shitty tech, which is most of it. Ditching your smartphone is a small but good start.
reply
"as a big FU to the megacorps"

Where is the satisfaction in that?

If you jump from a bridge, all it does, is that relatives of yours will receive the bill for cleaning up the blood and remains (on top of funeral etc).

reply
I think of doing this except for suicide (which you shouldn't do) I fantasize about becoming a monk. That's a life role that can't be replaced with AI, provides meaning to yourself and to the community and guarantees you a certain amount of happiness – probably more than most jobs.
reply
Monasteries are wary about people inquiring because they can't hack it in the world. And because monasteries are businesses of a sort, they are concerned with what a middle-aged inquirer can bring to the table financially.
reply
That's a very broad statement; the reality depends on the specific order and monastery in question. To be sure monasteries are wary about all who inquire, thus the usual two-year neophyte period. Beyond that some will expect more from novices, other less, but there are many stories of broken people retreating to monastic life even today. Indeed many (within the Church) expound that as a key role of monasteries, providing a place for people to escape from the world. If you just want to live a Godly life, you can do that in society; monasteries are precisely the place you go to do so outside of it.
reply
A pithy saying in both the Catholic and Orthodox traditions is that people shouldn't consider monasticism if they want to run away from the world, but rather only if they want to run towards Christ. A significant part of the discernment process is weeding out the former.
reply
> hitting ALT+F4 on life for good

That hardly seems like it would be satisfying.

reply
There are many ways to do that more effectively TBH.
reply
You are presuming that you will need to retrain for a new job. Why do you think that?
reply
Because I've been looking for a new job for several months and all of them either require significant retraining or don't pay nearly enough to maintain even a similar quality of life. I don't just mean they don't pay enough for luxury. I mean they don't pay enough to live in my community without a roommate.
reply
Also what job do we retrain for?
reply
No - because as a software developer adapting IS the job.
reply
The internet has made it easier than ever to learn new skills. You don't need college unless you're targeting a career that requires, or expects, a degree.
reply
"unless you're targeting a career that requires, or expects, a degree."

Unfortunately most well paying jobs do.

reply
Maybe there will be an inversion. Lots of white collar office jobs can be partially automated, or have their efficiency greatly increased by AI. But we still don't seem to be near widely deployed robots that finish drywall
reply
You think the drywall company is going to hire you? Why would they hire someone in middle age with no experience when there are no shortage of 20 year olds who already know the trade?
reply
Do you like working with dry walls? I don't. I can do it, but I ain't born for handywork.
reply
well, I suppose the same way that other people whose jobs were lost due to automation over the years were supposed to retrain for good jobs? I doubt they had the money or years to go back to college to get a livable job either.
reply
In the past there was always demand for "unskilled" (manual) labor where displaced workers could land to without long (re)training, and possibly even gain skills on the job. But that job marked has dramatically diminished especially in the west; there are only so many burgers to be flipped. Somewhat famously during industrial revolution displaced agricultural workers (e.g. farmhands) ended up mass-migrating to cities doing factory work under extremely exploitative conditions. And that never truly got resolved, we just brushed the issue under the rug by pushing manual labor to third world countries where the problems could remain out of sight.
reply
Generally speaking they didn't. They either got lucky or their quality of life plummeted.
reply
Pretty much none of us are doing jobs that existed in colonial America.
reply
How can you not see that this time its actually different? The very need for labor is being obviated. Every technological change we had before still required a need for labor often an massive need that justified an entire city population. That is the difference. For the first time in human history, economic output is being severed from requiring maintenance of a labor pool. Considering we are that labor pool, things do not bode so well for us. As you state, look at the relative lack of abundance of candlestick makers and horeshoe makers and basket weavers and other colonial jobs. We are essentially making ourselves extinct and we don't even realize this.
reply
They said the same thing when the looms put weavers out of a job.
reply
There's an off-color joke that could be made here but the real question is the speed of change - we gloss over it but there have been major changes that took centuries, and others that were quite fast, this one seems to be closer to the fast end.
reply
Yes and? You'll be shocked to know that pretty much none of us were alive in colonial America.
reply
In my experience, AI has given far more leverage to software engineers than anyone else, because they have a feel for what computers can do, what's easy, what's hard, what's performant, or poorly specified, etc. Therefore I think retraining is mostly about being willing to experiment with AI-assisted workflows and not being too tied to old ways of doing things. As long as you are focused on the problems you are solving, I think you'll do okay.

What I'm more concerned about are the younger generation where all the learning tasks have been automated. I have faith that the strong, naturally curious engineering types will still learn to do great engineering, and honestly without some of the mental blocks and calcified assumptions that us greybeards have. But how do they get in the foot in the door and the reps needed to develop senior-level judgment is another question.

In some sense we need the current mania to die down and the long-term maintenance implications of heavy AI assistance to become more apparent. Basically I think we need the AI bubble to pop and then 1-2 years for things to stabilize, and then we'll recalibrate on hiring expectations and best practices for AI usage. The current AI maximalist and doomer views I think are both basically driven by capitalist incentives and wishful thinking from investors and a reality check is going to come in some form (whether technically, socially or politically).

reply
You retrain the same way that we told workers when we decimated the garment and manufacturing industries. You'll get the same amount of government support too.
reply
Who's we? Personally, I've actively supported the traditional garment industry to the degree that it still exists.
reply
It used to be you could just buy (for example) jeans made in America for $20. I bought such a pair back in the late 1990s. There was no need to be busy trying to "support the traditional garment industry".

Nowadays you'll be spending $40 (same price after adjusting for inflation) for something definitely not made in America, and probably of inferior quality too. Since the domestic garment industry has shrunk so much, the supply chains an economies of scale don't exist anymore to buy domestically-made garments of decent quality at those prices.

reply
We are all going to learn the hard way, this is what the economy is like for many people. Always on the precipice of losing everything and thus willing to do anything like the capital owners want it.

Whatever cushy career path you think is safe now will probably not be so safe by the time you go to university, train, land a job in it etc. The job of the future is nurse, diaper-changer, cleaner, prostitute for elderly retirees. Welcome to the aging fascist AI technoutopia.

reply
[dead]
reply
Many of us on this site have worked directly on projects where the efficiency gains ultimately reduced or eliminated positions. If you want to exit the development field, I think the answer is probably the same as for the people whose jobs we helped eliminate.
reply