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by karlkloss9 hours ago |
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upvoteby thomasahle7 minutes ago|
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What kind of deviation? Was it something AI could have helped catch earlier?
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upvoteby teitoklien9 hours ago|
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AI didn’t make chip manufacturing more expensive

Manufacturers choosing not to scale with demand or not being able to scale with demand

Is what constrained the supply.

Hopefully will be fixed within a decade , then it’s cool new stuff all the way.

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upvoteby mtrovo7 hours ago|
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> Manufacturers choosing not to scale with demand or not being able to scale with demand

In a vacuum, that would make sense.

But looking at how the industry works, the number of defunct companies, and how the whole industry got concentrated on the conservative companies, you start to understand that the reason they still exist is mainly because they don't ride fad waves.

It's not like chip manufacturing is a spot instance on AWS that you spin up and down when needed; these are multi-year, multi-billion dollar investments that require long-term demand studies. The AI approach of requesting a whole fab of demand for the next 5 years with a letter from Jason Hwang that says "trust it, bro" does not bring as much confidence as it appears.

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upvoteby imglorp8 hours ago|
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Why aren't boring, old process ASICs isolated from this mess?
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upvoteby throwup2382 minutes ago|
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There’s a lot of other boring chips on a server motherboard beyond the RAM and CPU that share older processes with everyone else making silicon. Stuff like power management ICs needed to bring up power to a chip in the right order, which were an annoyance even before COVID and AI.
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upvoteby jrflo3 hours ago|
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The whole supply chain is so focused on RAM/GPUs that it's affecting everything. I've seen random sensors 3x in price because the company making them has shifted their manufacturing focus.
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upvoteby 011000117 hours ago|
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When did chip demand skyrocket?

How long does it take to ramp up capacity?

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upvoteby rfgplk8 hours ago|
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Local manufacturing is the next open challenge in hardware. If a pizza can be baked locally, why not chips?
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upvoteby Muromec8 hours ago|
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Pizza making smol machine, low precision, child baking big machine, trees expensive, can't have locally
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upvoteby bkaae7 hours ago|
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Child baking machine still human job, chip baking is harder
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upvoteby ewild7 hours ago|
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Used to be a bakers oven was one per town, maybe big precise machine becomes cheap smol precise machine
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upvoteby jacquesm2 hours ago|
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3D printers are a nice analogy, but the complexity level is orders of magnitude higher for chip making, besides the stability of the environment requirements.
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