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by proxysna7 hours ago |
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upvoteby adrian_b6 hours ago|
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CXMT has entered the market, but for now they cannot increase their production fast enough to influence significantly the global prices, due to the US "sanctions", which prevent them to buy modern fabrication equipment.

So they must use older equipment, which has low productivity for state-of-the-art memories. Because of the "sanctions" there are now Chinese companies that have progressed significantly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, but the effect of this will also take some more time to manifest.

Nonetheless, if the 3 big memory producers will not be able to increase the availability of memory until 2028, then until then CXMT will grab with certainty a major part of the market (they have already grown quickly until 10% of the market, from a negligible percent previously).

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upvoteby Danox2 hours ago|
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The rest of the world won’t care. They will use whatever memory they can get, and if the Chinese are willing to supply it over the next 5 to 10 years, they end up on top…
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upvoteby dv_dt6 hours ago|
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The greed and shortsightedness from both the memory makers and their big customers trying to lock out competitors from memory purchases is palpable. The first act of a Shakespearean or Greek Tragedy is where the characters take the actions that lock in the circumstances that precede their downfall. And this sets up everything for the next act where CXMT has everything it needs to establish itself on the market with buyers that would perhaps would not have considered it in other circumstances.
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upvoteby superxpro126 hours ago|
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[flagged]
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upvoteby 3 hours ago|
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deleted
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upvoteby lotsofpulp6 hours ago|
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So if capitalism resulted in higher prices that is causing consternation among small-scale buyers, what -ism is responsible for the investment in factories that increased supply of components that resulted in lower priced electronics for the past few decades?

Was that also capital looking for returns?

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upvoteby Covzire6 hours ago|
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Don't take the reddit bait
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upvoteby shimman3 hours ago|
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Why is it bait? It's literally making the world worse were the gains only benefit an extremely small minority of people at the expense of everyone else.
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upvoteby genpfault3 hours ago|
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> Just this week i've paid ~$1k USD for 2x32G DDR5 ECC, insane.

https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.5600....

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upvoteby nashashmi3 hours ago|
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I thought your price for 32g was you getting ripped off. Holy crap. The price is super high now. Now I am lamenting missing out on getting 128GB ram when it was $700, thinking it was too high. It is outrageously expensive now.
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upvoteby Danox2 hours ago|
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They will end up in five years being the dominant memory maker in the world.
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upvoteby aurareturn7 hours ago|
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Everyone, and I mean everyone, is gated by ASML machines. They can't make nearly enough EUV machines to satisfy the demand. ASML has also not scaled their production nearly as much because they're quite far away from the AGI-pilled companies in the supply chain.
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upvoteby Tuna-Fish6 hours ago|
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Well, CXMT is not gated by ASML machines because they can't buy them. They can raise their capacity because they have access to the domestically produced steppers. They are not as good as the ASML ones, and if the memory prices were not bonkers, they'd never make a profit using them, but as it is the low yields and high die sizes don't matter.
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upvoteby Danox2 hours ago|
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The problem is that you’re giving them an in into the market, and as time goes on, they will get better at making memory. That’s like saying you’re going to exclude the Chinese the space station. Look what happened. They now have their own space station?
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upvoteby aurareturn6 hours ago|
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They are. They are using ASML DUV machines for memory. Samsung, SK, and Micron have moved onto EUV machines for memory because they are better. So CXMT not only has to rely on ASML, they have to rely on a worse machine to make modern memory chips.
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upvoteby genxy6 hours ago|
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You don't need ASML machines to make RAM. BS.
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upvoteby aurareturn5 hours ago|
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All modern DDR5 and HBM are made using EUV machines.

The exception is CXMT, which uses ASML DUV machines in a less efficient process.

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upvoteby elorant7 hours ago|
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They don't have the infrastructure to meet global demand.
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upvoteby Grombobulous7 hours ago|
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I would never bet against a Chinese company ramping up production quickly.
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upvoteby ngl9997 hours ago|
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They'll probably join the party and hype about tight demand by that time.
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upvoteby maratc6 hours ago|
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In communist China, the party joins you.
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upvoteby HarHarVeryFunny5 hours ago|
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Depends on what kind of memory you are talking about.

For DRAM, CXMT were only 1% of the global supply 3 years ago, and are now already 10%. They are growing extremely rapidly.

If you are concerned about consumer memory - smartphones, laptops, desktops, then this is what CXMT are making. CXMT do make HBM too, for AI accelerators, but their volume there is held back by sanctions.

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upvoteby vidarh7 hours ago|
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They're 10% of the market now, and they've shown the ability to scale up manufacturing rapidly. They certainly won't singlehandedly meet demand, but they might at least be able to temper the price growth quite a bit.
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upvoteby bryanlarsen7 hours ago|
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Yet. Maybe they will by 2028, making this prediction incorrect.
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upvoteby Danox2 hours ago|
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Right now, but that’s gonna change rapidly over the next five years. Once again, they didn’t have a space station. now they do…
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