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by thayne4 hours ago |
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upvoteby tzs4 hours ago|
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They aren't keeping supply low.

They have two massive DRAM fabs (56000 m^2 cleanroom size each) that they started construction on in 2022 and 2023 in Idaho, with production starting in 2027 and 2028.

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upvoteby fakedang2 hours ago|
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The point they were stating was that if they kept up the high prices, that leaves room for a low priced competitor, likely from China, to occupy the lower end (and larger) share of the market. Like what BYD did to the EV market everywhere except the US. Or what Chinese mobiles did to the smartphone market. Eventually they become so powerful that they start going upmarket, trying to catch everyone in the higher end segments too. And by the time the Western companies think they can retaliate, too bad, China's got them by the bollocks on raw material.
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upvoteby mandevil1 hours ago|
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But the reason that semiconductors are so vulnerable to boom/bust cycles (going back decades) is that takes a very long time to build the fab- you have nothing for years, and then the fab completes and enormous numbers of chips get made. So if you get demand wrong either direction you have problems. Either you flood the market or prices go way up.

I don't think it is possible to beat the fab construction delays. This isn't about things being slow in the US: TSMC took four years to go from site selection to some production at their Fab 22 plant in Taiwan (it is currently only 60% built out, is my understanding). And TSMC is best in the world at getting frontier (logic) semiconductor fabs built, it took them slightly longer (five years) for Fab 21 in Arizona. Logic fabs are not the same as memory fabs, but they are close enough to be a good comparison for timeline.

Basically, unless you started fab construction (specifically to make memory chips) in 2023 you cannot change production for 2027 and 2028. The only thing that will affect prices between now and 2028 is demand, production can't go up because the fabs to make those chips don't exist. If you started now you might get memory chips in 2031, and can you bet 40 billion dollars that the demand will still be there? (A current generation logic fab costs about 20 billion. By 2031 a logic fab will cost about 40 billion. I don't have prices for a current memory fab, but as I understand it they are comparable.)

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upvoteby zamalek2 hours ago|
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Which are exactly the two years they are threatening tighter supply.
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upvoteby tzs19 minutes ago|
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He's "threatening" tighter supply the same way a weather forecaster "threatens" heavy rain.
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upvoteby jazzyjackson1 hours ago|
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Production starts != maxing out capacity of the fab
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upvoteby guelo1 hours ago|
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He's not threatening. Demand is exploding and supply just can't keep up.
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