We've also been hearing we're 6 months from AGI for about three years, and here we are.
reply"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"
How is that relevant to this discussion?
replyPhantom Tollbooth?
replyNope, wrong bit of slightly-surreal children's literature. Through the Looking-Glass and what Alice Found There by C L Dodgson, otherwise known as Lewis Carroll.
replyThose are two different things. The market is expanding, so even if competitors are catching up, you can have your own revenue, in absolute terms, grow.
replyThat's fair, I left out a part of what I keep hearing in relation to the open weight models only being a few months behind, which is that they're going to eat the big labs' lunch, but then the big labs keep growing...
reply> but then the big labs keep growing...
replyYeah, I could buy a bigger and bigger vehicle when a new one goes to market, but using a semi-truck to drive myself around would not only be significantly more wasteful but also more inconvenient and limiting compared to a sedan. Very much like advanced closed models vs performant open ones.
The thing is O/A have been much louder on pacing the frontier, lately.
replyAnd yes, open weights are still behind, but are catching up.