One reason a lot of sci-fi and AI safety researchers did a relatively good job at predicting the future we see now is a lot of it is the same problems we see emerge in biological systems. Free rider problems as a means to save energy expenditures, different versions of game theory and stag hunt. How to bake in rules that apply to one society (or part of it) but not another. We like to think of these things as stable in human scale systems, but they are not at all. Things can go from hunky dory to your neighbors stabbing each other in the streets in mass revolution very quickly.
replyWorse these AI systems are not in a universal island just affecting themselves, what they do affects us, what we do trains them and as the rate of progress continues to accelerate social structures are going to further destabilize (and they are already rapidly changing and strained). It is very likely we are going to see a world order rearrangement soon, much like the rapid changes in the early 1900s brought.
Except that they've done a terrible job at predicting things. Their predictions keep getting shown to be false, and then they insert their narrative over what's happening anyway.
replyOh, yea, mispredicted inner misalignment, outer misalignment, deceptive alignment, emergent capabilities, increasing lack of model interpretation, models taking initiative outside their prompts and doing unexpected things.
replyYep, all of it was wrong. All of it is downstream of the safetyists bolting things on and then being shocked when their own clamps and locks create their fears.
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