I think you are missing the points of my argument, my argument don't stand on AI isn't capable of discovering new techniques, as I don't believe in new techniques from the sky.
My argument is about any targeted goal based AI (which to the best of my knowledge is the case for LLMs as used now). My point is, if there exists a computationally bounded path from existing work that led to solving a conjecture and if the goal of the AI is to solve this conjecture, then alternative path that would have led to new discovery will be dismissed on the way (or lost in the computational trace if you prefer), leading to the conjecture being solved but maybe closing forever/for a long time new paths. I don't see how you could have as a goal to explore alternative path without a good metric of what is a good alternative path (like rating a chess position), which to me, seems unlikely to exist. If you don't have such metric then you would have a clear exponential blowup.
More like a percolation problem if you prefer, a neglected approach might have introduced a concept that would make further discoveries accessible. Missing that concept could therefore leave a whole region unexplored, not just one branch of one proof.
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