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You are extrapolating from the mistakes made by free versions of smaller models to claim that frontier models struggle with easy problems. This is an obvious mistake in reasoning because as you can see from my shared Astra conversation, frontier models don't have the same limitation. (They can count letters and they know they can count letters.)

Many people in this thread have made claims about limitations of frontier models, but I'm the only one who has shared a conversation with one. Everyone else is either sharing conversations of smaller models making mistakes, or they're making claims about frontier models but not linking to examples of them falling over. If frontier models were so easily fooled, you'd think someone would link to a conversation showing that.

Why look at the rate of improvement of free models when you can look at token pricing? Back in 2023, GPT-3.5 cost around $20 per million tokens. Astra costs half that.

The worry is not that smaller free models will replace people's jobs. The worry is that future models will. We are talking about the capabilities of frontier models because those put a lower bound on the capabilities of future models. Extrapolating from smaller models is a waste of time, as you can interact with the frontier model to figure out its capabilities and limitations.

Also the timestamps on the shared conversations show that you asked Gemini 10 hours after ChatGPT, which means you asked it after your comment claiming you asked both models.

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I didn't save the original query so I asked again this morning and ended up getting the same response -- points for consistency, though it might have been more reassuring with the correct answer.

I don't think my point is really landing so I'll try once more and then give up.

Let's say frontier models today have no problem counting letters, I never really disputed that but only asked about it. It seems based on the other replies in this thread, it's a bit of a "who you ask" kind of thing, but let's grant that they have no issues with it now.

The first version of chatgpt was released 4 years ago next month. Which is not quite 5 years but close. In that time we've just barely managed to get spelling down. If we extrapolate that rate of progress forward 5 more years, are you still afraid for your job?

I think we're all more likely to lose our jobs from a downturn in the economy caused by the capex/debt bubble bursting than being made redundant by AI. (And the continual pricing reductions only seem to make this result more likely.) Hopefully neither happens and in 5 years we'll all still be gainfully employed.

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