1) Predicting the future is hard, but so far everyone who was saying that it would get better turned out to be right. It is getting better
2) Waymo exists
reply3) That doesn't mean flying cars will within your lifetime
replyI don't think anyone is saying it can't or won't get better, but the question is how much better, on what timescale, and are there fundamental parts of the problem which will remain extraordinarily difficult to improve?
The comment I was responding to suggested a guarantee of an "order of magnitude" jump right around the corner. There is no guarantee of this, and if you view doomers as fools for having doubts, then we ought to look upon the folks who are sure of this sort of progress in the same way.
Your original comment was about self-driving cars, not flying ones. If you wanted unattainable goalposts you should’ve started with that, not ended with it.
replyWaymo does not claim level 5 self-driving, and you don't have a level 4 in your driveway, so there was no moving of goalposts.
replyThen say that, instead of bringing up flying cars, which is moving them, explicitly.
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