Machado’s odds suddenly surged to almost 80% 12 hours before the announcement
replyhttps://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1o383a1/oc...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/nobel-peace-pr...
Wasn’t that because their CMS had URLs that were easy to guess?
replyhttps://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1o51k61/upd...
It makes me wonder- how many people are making a living guessing 'secrets' like this on polymarket? Not with bribes and leaks, but just poor infosec. Seems like interesting work, and probably lucrative with the right skillset.
replyGood point. You could hack someone and just lurk and never do anything directly malicious that would make them notice your presence
replydeleted
replyThere was an interesting interview on the OddLots podcast recently with people who are doing this. They were remarkably sophisticated.
replyDo you remember the podcast number or title? Curious to hear more about it
replygambling - this is news?
replyPerception and financial market movement is interesting to a curious and educated mind.
replyYou know where to head for the cat memes.
The prize in economics is even more different, "in memory of alfred nobel"
replyhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...
Yes, it doesn’t really have anything to do with the actual Nobels but the name.
reply