It would still be detectable though: Does sum(price of all Yes) have an early unexpected down draw?
replythis seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)
replyhttps://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...
Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?
edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions
Pretty stupid prize to bet on considering the committee keeps even the nominees secret for 50 years.
replyI hope it gets banned by the next administration.
replyIt would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.
reply