Caveat: that same tiny group is employed by the AI vendors, meaning it's in their financial best interest to make it sound like the curve is going vertical.
Considering the investment in AI, the lack of moat, and the increased inability of any of the big players to come even close to profitability (with OpenAI already breaking the "ads" emergency glass option)... perhaps he meant a tiny group is already seeing the line crater
Do you still write code by hand?
AI models can dismantle billion dollar industries. They can reverse engineer Adobe and Microsoft products that once were their moats and titans of their industry.
Why do you think they'd need to lie?
LLMs are great and will get better but we have not seen an open source office suite built by LLMs come online yet, and even if there was one I'm pretty sure few would adopt it, cause that's not the only moat, LibreOffice has been around for decades.
Sure they didn't build it from scratch but what I'm saying is that there's no moats anymore. If you build something, they will tear it down to its composite pieces and assimilate it.
There is in fact no indication of this, not evem the precious benchmaxxed benchmarks ya'll love to reference.
There is however a exponential curve of slop, and an ever increasing number of people who's minds are completely captured by these things.
I'm not arguing that they cant write code, or write a proof. Its just not written or designed well and is absolutely brutal and soul crushing to work with. Look at these proofs they're producing also, they're millions of lines of Lean that are impossible to reason about.
The way we're using the term 'verticle' to describe a curve means we're not being honest about this. This curve can actually be plotted, you can go look at the curve. It is not in fact 'verticle'. Each model release is climbing single digits on benchmarks it was overfit for.
In the last 9 months or so llms have gone from just another useful proof tactic (like grind or sledgehammer or sat solvers) to being so good at writing proofs that I don't even bother to try myself anymore.