I find it hard to believe that Anthropic couldn't have similarly impressive results if they tried. I'm honestly not sure it's worth it though, it's mostly marketing, right? But given how easy it is to switch from one provider to another, why would you choose the model that solved a Millenium problem, instead of the one that solves *your* problems?

I understand that it's still useful marketing, say for IPO or hiring, but it's not clear to me that it really matters in the long-term that they fund this out of their pocket.

I know it's old hat now, because it happened over a week ago, but it's amusing that Millennium Problems are now just benchmarks we use for discussing models.

If you can spend your way to Frontier LLMs even if it's a few hundred Billion that means it's a commodity same as nuclear or electricity or telecom.

This is the entire point here, give it a couple years every nation on the planet with 20-40B in funding would have their own champions with post Fable level performance.

WhatsApp has 3 times as many users, and as soon as meta turn it into a chat AI app people want to use, it's right there

Meta has apps billions of people use every day. If AI included in those is good enough they will just uninstall (or never open again) ChatGPT one. It's not true in the other direction.

You don't just "find" a moat in business. After all this time and money and first mover advantage, they haven't found a one yet.

I mean this is the case in general.

E.g in f1 you can get very close but difficult to pass unless you have a significant advantage.

Whats gonna happen is that time will compress as more releases happen faster and difference between models will still be significant just at higher time frequencies. I expect in the future continuous releases that span no more then days and maybe even faster. So what will become important is not who is 1st or second place at any given time (which might change often), its who is on average at any given time is 1st or second compared to the competition. So yeah meta sitting second here (if not benchmaxed) doesn't really signal anything if that pattern doesn't persist. The number one consistent lab will be the one that raps the rewards (customer subscriptions and traffic). So yeah I agree with what you stated in a long winded form :P

Nearly two weeks since Gemini 4 Argon was announced and I still haven't seen any pelicans from Simon Willison for it. Nobody is currently using it either. What's the point of announcing Gemini 4 and then throwing it into the black hole?

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