"By 2026, Google’s main product will not be search but AI."
replyYou think this was a 50/50 coinflip statement in 2016?
Nah. way before that page/brin wanted to create ai (agi) long before that when google was started or in its infancy, but it seemed completely unbelievable (the kind of stuff elon musk would say)
replyI can't find the reference to it, but I remember them saying it in wired or similar.
It’s still search. They had an AI based search for quite some time. Now it spits out a summary.
replyFor predictions? I'd say so. If I could make a statement and flip a coin to make it true 50% of the time, I could win the lottery with many 9s of precision in likelihood.
replyA random prediction does not have 50/50 odds of being correct
replyThe coin-flip comparison doesn't really hold up. These weren't 16 independent questions with 50/50 odds. Some were safe bets, others were pretty far out there in 2016. Getting half right only tells you something if 50% was a reasonable baseline to begin with. Why would it be?
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