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I think for 95%+ of applications.. you just need a link to a data center anywhere.

My assumption is the hardware will have one/several smaller models running on it for locomotion, balance, etc.

Then the hardware "phones home" for decision making and planning.

Essentially the planning doesn't need to be close to the device as long as the local models can handle some part of the plan execution and make sure the robot doesn't fall over. The latency shouldn't be an issue. In fact more powerful centralized compute quickly creates an advantage over slower local compute in terms of end to end planning.

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I can see some liability issues with that approach.
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> Aren't we still like a decade away from an Argon model being able to run on battery power for any reasonable amount of time that would fit on a robot that isn't the size of a school bus?

Sooner or later, the models will stop improving. After that happens, the best models will be etched into model-specific ASICs with weights fixed in mask ROM (like Taalas is already doing), which will result in massive, at least order of magnitude inference efficiency increase.

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They said the same thing for transistor density in new chip nodes. It took 40 years of doubling every 2 years to finally hit a wall.

And although the industry hit a wall in density/area, they switched to scaling in 3D or glueing chiplets together. Moore's Law is still working if you change the definition to transistors/integrated circuit.

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That doesn’t help the RAM situation
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I'm naive, but wouldn't industrial applications be enabled by this anyway? You'll have in-house inference hardware that a robot can talk to via local network.

Also, your model probably doesn't need like a lot of its knowledge to control a robot.

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That's only bringing up the horizon maybe 1 year. At industrial scale - I guess something like an Amazon warehouse could start to be interesting with a local datacenter IN the warehouse within 2-3 years.

From a cost perspective, I just can't imagine that heavily, heavily specialized models wouldn't crush a general model, though - which Amazon already does.

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Everyone thinks specialized models are the ticket, except then they aren't: http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html
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I wonder to what degree that holds up for very limited domains. You have to balance model size, power budget and cost which is a completely different ballgame than looking at a stationary server with a near infinite power budget and where the costs can be amortized over much larger numbers of hits.

Robotics tends to be at the worst possible intersection point of all three of those: limited power budget, relatively small model size and cheap enough to be affordable when embedded into an appliance.

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Kitchen appliances run Linux now. I think the economies of scale might win regardless
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Training specialized models for every task is a "general method leveraging computation" in the sense of the Bitter Lesson. Making the best possible model for each task is guaranteed to be at least as good as making one model and using it for everything, and often it'll be better.
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You can already run top of the line models on something that isn't the size of a school bus. The couple of KW you need to run them are the bigger problem, though on very high end hardware you might get double the efficiency.

Robots stand-alone AI do not really benefit from things like batch mode so you want to keep your LLM as high level as possible and your robot's subsystems as autonomous as possible, very light coupling between the two, definitely nothing time-critical. And that's the challenge: in robotics almost everything is time critical.

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Probably not many applications require the full AI compute to be local on device (Self-driving cars and military applications come to mind).
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And? 5-7 years is nothing at the scale of our modern society and the outcome of what you describe could be enormous.
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I don't disagree.

It just seems like jumping the shark a little bit.

It's basically completely unviable for a few years still.

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It's viable today via network.

I don't think it's viable in the sense that they are still in a demo stage.

Also, I would assume these models are going to get bigger before they get smaller (but they will get smaller over the long run)

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> It's viable today via network.

For a set of tasks that almost no one would use a robot for...

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