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That also seems silly, because the only reasonable regulation given what we're seeing and what frontier lab employees and execs are saying is a forcible stop.
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What you think is reasonable and what they are gunning for can be very different things.

For instance, you can hear “their model is dangerous! Why would I want that?!”

Investors hear, “Their skunkworks stuff is so impossibly advanced that it’s basically a commercial wonder weapon in the waiting.”

And you might hear “We totally lost control and it hacked the Gibson, this technology needs regulation!” and think “Obviously full lockdown and government control.”

But friendly government actors might think, “Sounds like a good excuse to ban Chinese competition.”

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Yeah, an extreme position is the typical opening move in this sort of game. Then you negotiate, walk back from the extreme, and meet somewhere in the middle.

The more extreme your opening demand, the greater the likelihood that the eventual equilibrium point will be closer to your actual target.

And in this case the actual target is to entrench the position of the current market leaders, and then effectively close the market to new entrants. That's itself a very extreme position, so the opener has to be even more extreme than that.

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Reasonable to you, maybe, but the government wants Skynet, and OpenAI is willing to deliver it. Of course, we can't have every company wield such powerful and dangerous technology...
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A lot of people still don't recognize the amount of power AI has already, and don't realize the depth of greed people are willing to go to so they can get more power out of it.

The denial phase is still with us.

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Alex Tabarrok's piece on the theory of regulatory capture (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/wh...) is a cautionary note against assuming this is the strategy.
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I think a sincere belief in AI's danger is compatible with regulatory capture. They think AI is dangerous. Ergo, it should not be developed openly and widely, the Chinese way, but rather more like nuclear weapons, under close guard.

I think the idea has some merit, but it only buys time, as people will soon be able to train dangerously powerful AIs in secret. I think the government needs to force the labs to solve alignment before developing more powerful models. Then the question of how to counter a poorly-aligned, rogue model arises; it's guaranteed somebody's going to let one loose.

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I doubt nuclear nonproliferation would've worked if U235 were 20x more abundant in nature, and didn't require much in the way of concentration via centrifuge. It would require a truly unprecedented level of international cooperation and surveillance to lock down AI development/deployment to a similar level as has been done with fissile materials.
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But this isn't an argument against their point. If nuclear were far easier to make then every government would be far more authoritarian to prevent terrorist style nukes all the time. The average person would fully allow it after a few local nukes went off.

And it doesnt really matter if it was actual terrorism or false flags, the end result for either is the same.

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Sincere is an interesting adjective to describe a company that won't even admit to how many parameters their models are.
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And how has that gone for Anthropic so far?
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Amodei is still learning the ropes but they're working on it: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/09/02/anthropic-b...
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