A huge chunk of their revenue comes from US-based enterprise customers. Earlier this year, in an effort to become profitable, they tried raising their rates. Those enterprise customers responded, in part, by ramping up efforts to migrate to open weight models. If those efforts are successful then OpenAI and Anthropic will lose their one remaining plausible path to profitability. The US banning open weight models arguably keeps that path open. I don't personally buy that story, but I do believe hedge funds and institutional investors would. That could be all that's needed for a successful IPO.
As for cybersecurity implications, long term impact on domestic AI industry or the US tech industry more broadly, geopolitics, etc., I don't think OpenAI's or Anthropic's leaders are any more worried about that than your average termite is about the structural integrity of the house it's eating.
You forgot about Ads. The one true endgame for every tech company.
Easy peasy. Shouldn't be too hard at all.
But imagine a world in which you could ask AI to write software to accomplish a particular task, and it understood completely what you meant, made tasteful choices, interviewed you as it went along to clarify things, and generated beautifully commented (maybe even Knuth-style literate) code that wasn't dogshit. Doesn't seem like an impossibility. What is annoying is that we're pretending like we have anything like that now.
Instead, there's this sort of science fiction pitch where we pretend like the LLM is just too damn logical to understand your sloppy human language. It's not logical, it's built on (human-generated) slop and generates slop. It's simply failing. We've come up with better ways to orient it towards big picture thinking and filling in outlines, but we don't know how to train it on big pictures.
Not that this would stop open models/harnesses from following (or even leading) frontier labs and destroying their insane valuations, but I don't think there's any evidence that a plateau has been reached. What we have is not great, and while a wall may have been hit on current approaches, the money, compute, and simply current progress in ideas has us in an environment where everything could change over the course of a crazy day. A single blog entry.
I do think that the frontier labs seem to have reached at least a temporary plateau. But if they figured out how to move past it and this new method didn't require a lot more compute, they'd still be screwed. Their only out is to pass the bag to the public, but Firmus, CharacterAI, CoreWeave...
> The US banning open weight models arguably keeps that path open.
They stole the collective data of humanity as a whole and now sell it back to you in a rent scheme. Open source will be starved of data and compute.
You're supposed to become dependent on that "service" and slave away at paying for it, while being able to earn anything only in conjunction with it.
Note how difficult it already is to get any up-to-date documentation on anything capable of generating actual market value. A monopoly on competency ensures maximal profits.
AGI, I think, is an illusion: you need a whole lot of specialized bots. Heck, when I query a bot wrt something I know nothing about, I'm blown away by its ability to inform me. But when I ask about something I DO know about, its answers are half-assed. Heck, even when it can access the internet, it avoids all the sites that have paywalls, so it sends me to little reddit to conversations that are entirely untrustworthy.
They make their money on token burn. They can’t do that if they’re competing with something that’s 80-90% as capable, but 1/10th of the cost (with the option of deploying it yourself for “free”).
Wealth accumulation via scare tactics is a classic move of defense contractors and AI firms are quite capable of running the same playbook.
The goal is power. Having 30 million of personal wealth is enough to retire in luxury and travel the world. They could all have this much right now. That's not what these types of people want.
Having 30 billion gives you the power to order legions of people around, buy and sell politicians, flood ad markets during elections, all with your couch cushion money. That's what motivates these types.
> The fact that a theory-free AI might demand far more cash to accomplish a task (even a "solved" one like playing chess) than an expert would charge is beside the point. Billionaires have money, they don't have expertise. Theory-free inference is a bid to substitute one for the other: the beauty and terror of being able to manipulate the world without studying or understanding it is that it can be done with money alone. No experts needed.
> In a world in thrall to financial power, expertise is the only substantial form of power that can reliably contest the power of wealth. Moreover, expertise is the foundation of other forms of power, such as labor power, which is what we call it when experts band together to combat financial power.
> This is why AI bosses are so violently allergic to the idea of hybridizing AI with symbolic systems that operate on models of the world. These models of the world must be constructed by experts, and the power of expertise cannot be reliably commanded by the power of wealth.
As is a 2000$ gaming laptop can a run a basic llm which is probably good enough for most basic programming.
Most companies are going to be forced to use “safe” LLMs and pay by the token. Maybe for half a million Anthro will let you host on site, but even this will face usage fees or caps.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1067...
> All Information (Except Text) for H.R.10670 - China FIREWALL Act of 2026
> Official Title as Introduced To prohibit Chinese AI models from being used on government-issued devices or software systems, to prohibit the procurement of any such models, and for other purposes.
It’s not too far fetched to see this expanded to government contractors or even other private businesses which handle sensitive material in the future.
At this moment in time, it seems frontier market needs regulation - market for open does not actually.
Oh.. they dont want regulation on that market? Boohoo!