Oh, I am well aware it's hard to time it. But still getting a general sense of the impending crash can help preparing in different ways. You can park part of your assets, not completely withdraw. Or pay extra for piece of mind by hedging them. Sure, it will cost, maybe won't be needed at all, or still misfired, but I'll sleep better with less anxiety, so that's still a win in my book...

This is the thing about being right too early has the same effect of being wrong.

Which is why I hate when people criticize some obviously overvalued shit, and the response is "why don't you short it".

Sometimes the best way to be safe of something about to explode is to just get away from it.

Yeah. The thing is, we were being told that was a problem in late 2004 (this is when Max Keiser was writing and talking about the risks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; he and others saying this were written off as cranks, even though they laid out a pretty solid scenario that came substantially true.)

So yes, Oracle is likely a canary in the coal mine.

It can only really be seen as an indicator of hidden risks to the banks from exposure to the SPVs.

But how long it will take before the miners start dropping dead from the fumes, who knows. Could be years, could be a few weeks after the Anthropic IPO when people are sitting smoking on the steps to the helipad saying "what the fuck? No I mean, really, really. What the fuck!"

Yep, market can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid"