(Can't remember, is it this Texas one?)
ETA: This whole Oracle bit is really the area of Zitron's predictions that is the least contentious: he called things, they are happening.
The big question is to what extent this is a harbinger of bad things. In a less crazy market where the value of enterprise-software-backed consultancy is stable or growing, you can imagine people lining up to bite off chunks from the carcass of a failed Oracle. But is the value of enterprise software even stable? Aren't many of the possible buyers also overextending themselves?
ETA 2: No, the potential force majeure is about a project in New Mexico, apparently
Wouldn't hedge funds or PE recognize this arbitrage opportunity and eat this up, making this a non-issue? Vastly simplifying this: suppose "junk bond" means the chance of default is greater or equal to 10%. Of course it's bad if the risk of oracle going bankrupt edges up from 9% to 10.1%, but we shouldn't expect pandemonium from the 10% cliff edge, because there's plenty to be made by selling all the bonds that pension funds are obligated to sell, because now they have higher yields (yields move inverse to bond prices).
(Sincere, not rhetorical questions)
Eh, people do weird things all the time.
Also, there is often extreme information asymmetry.
I guess, maybe, but perhaps the risk that GP is commenting on is that it could be it's own form of Juicing.
I do sincerely doubt, even with the big shifts that AI enables to have companies 'move away' from Oracle, that Oracle will default.
On the other hand, There's still an elevated chance of decline.
IOW, Those stocks might move from pension type plans to different baskets as a result, however there is a non-negligible risk of some (not total!) loss in the 5-10 year term.
Will add, I would -hope- that the same pension rules around selling questionable stocks, would also have rules limiting what level of exploitation is possible.
Equity shares do not have ratings, bonds have ratings. Everything else is correct, if their bond ratings slip one more level they will be rated junk which may force some holders to liquidate if they’re not allowed to hold junk bonds.
Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results, as they say.
Recently, the Australian AI firm failed to secure an IPO [1], [2].
OpenAI is looking to go for an IPO despite shaky revenue [3], [4], [5], resulting in a stock drop for companies like Oracle invested in OpenAI [6].
Anthropic is in a similar situation: looking to IPO despite shaky finances [7], [8], [9].
The companies involved are all investing in each other and trading money between them leading to circular investment [10].
[1] https://www.wsj.com/finance/firmus-ipo-ai-trade-f490c240
[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-10/how-firmus-the-bigges...
[3] https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/08/openais-revenue-is-reporte...
[4] https://www.inc.com/chris-morris/what-openais-leaked-financi...
[5] https://futurism.com/future-society/ai-financial-bubble-open...
[6] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracl...
[7] https://www.investors.com/news/technology/anthropic-ipo-fili...
[8] https://www.newconstructs.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Ant...
[9] https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/2622154...
[10] https://graceblakeley.substack.com/p/the-ai-circular-economy