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> It was really quick.

That's how the singularity works. It's going to keep getting quicker, incomprehensibly so.

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I like to call it the great incoherence.

Even before LLMs it was feeling like the design of society wasn't really for people any longer, instead it's more and more designed for corporations and their convenience. In the US at least. Same with how the internet has stopped most people with socializing the same way they did in the past.

Now we have a new layer that will be optimized for these digital entities. We see it in writing all over the internet. There will be tons of other places they show up and doing things that don't make sense to us.

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I don't see how this is possible. There are constraints on the speed at which information can move and the number of steps required to compete a given task. The improvement cannot continue, let alone accelerate, indefinitely without bounds.
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OK - sure. Probably.

But it can continue to inconceivable levels before it gets to that point.

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Okay, how can we be certain even about that? It sounds just as plausible to me that the improvements will become asymptotic and boring, not exponential or inconceivable -- and how can we make any confident prediction at all about the heights these models will reach? The technology those heights require doesn't exist, and its existence isn't guaranteed, even if it is possible.
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> how can we be certain

Certain of predictions? I think that's an unreasonable ask.

And I'm comfortable with my prediction. Rather than argue about it - let's wait a year and see what happens, and then we can discuss it.

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> I think that's an unreasonable ask.

Oh, good point! I misread your comment. Sorry for that!

> Rather than argue about it - let's wait a year and see what happens, and then we can discuss it.

Deal!

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I think what makes it hard is that it's quick, but not sudden. I understand constant-rate improvement. I understand what it's like to be in a car crash. What I can't understand, emotionally, is the constant acceleration. Even now, if I look at an OpenAI solution in isolation, I can understand the big picture, so if things froze where they are I could adjust. Intellectually I know I'm not going to get that chance, but emotionally I don't.
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