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by estearum11 hours ago |
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upvoteby funcDropShadow10 hours ago|
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Similar, to the time Tesla was fucked, because they wanted to sell EVs when there was neither demand nor charging infra. Or when SpaceX wanted to build a rocket that could land on legs, whereas every wannabe rocket scientists knew that to be impossible.
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upvoteby estearum9 hours ago|
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Or similar to the time Cybertruck was a giant success, FSD was ready in 2022, and Falcon 1 would launch 600kg for $7 million.
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upvoteby vessenes10 hours ago|
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I'd be very surprised if the roadster project was particularly expensive. That operating margin tells you they are spending all the cash they are earning on cars on the other stuff, not that the cars suddenly became more expensive to make.

I'm interested to meet someone online who's short both on-shore US silicon fabs and the market for humanoid robots. Can you say more about your thinking?

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upvoteby estearum9 hours ago|
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I'm short on an allegedly successful automotive company that has a rapidly deteriorating automotive business (due entirely to management's own decision-making) pivoting into the most hyped business ideas in the world. I'm bearish on the type of creative accounting and self-dealing we see between the Musk companies.

Musk is similar to Zuck in that they get some credit for sheer courage to turn the wheel on their massive businesses, but they also have to be right. Aside from his anticompetitive behavior, Zuck continues to miss. Musk's pattern has been that the more Musk is personally involved, the worse the outcomes. Cybertruck was his baby. Optimus is his baby.

If Tesla is doing so well as an automotive business, then why doesn't he just continue making it a great automotive business?

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upvoteby vessenes8 hours ago|
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I mean the short answer is that it doesn’t temperamentally suit him to do so.

Maybe a mid length answer is if you agree with his assessment on say humanoid robots in terms of market and you believe they might have a geometric growth factor in production (eg robots can make more robots) then you’d want that business build out done by a team that can scale rapidly.

For fabs spacex and Tesla are significant consumers of the output- vertical integration is preferred by lots of companies.

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upvoteby estearum7 hours ago|
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> I mean the short answer is that it doesn’t temperamentally suit him to do so.

Correct, and I think having a CEO who's totally unaccountable to a board and is temperamentally unable to focus on his core business is not good.

SpaceX and Tesla are nowhere near large enough consumers to justify vertically integrating a fab. The demand is predicated on Optimus producing millions of units per year.

This circularity will probably end up being seen in retrospect as so transparently absurd that it'll beggar belief that anyone accepted it.

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upvoteby vessenes6 hours ago|
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I respect the perspective, of course, and cannot argue with the risk assessment.

That said I think these bets will pay off. Let’s check in in five years!

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upvoteby krisoft4 hours ago|
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> Let’s check in in five years!

Do you have particular predictions we can evaluate in five years?

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upvoteby vessenes3 hours ago|
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1) The fab will have been a highly profitable investment, possibly worth spinning out

2) more than 1mm optimus produced and sold in the US

Happy for any counters :)

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upvoteby HarHarVeryFunny1 hours ago|
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You've got to take Musk's forecasts with a massive grain (sack?) of salt. Pre-launch he was estimating making 250,000 Cybertrucks per year by 2025. So far, total sales over 3 years have actually been 60-70K.

I'd bet that in 5 years time Optimus total sales are in the 10's of thousands at best, with few to no large scale industrial users (other than self-use by Musk). Customers will be similar to what AgiBot and Unitree currently have - entertainment, hospitality, academic, small scale trials, plus a few Tesla fanboy sales that don't do anything actually productive.

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upvoteby estearum3 hours ago|
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In five years? It would be an achievement if it's operating in five years. Absolutely zero chance it will be profitable by then.

1MM Optimus sold in the US is hilarious too.

Want to make bets on these?

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upvoteby TheOtherHobbes42 minutes ago|
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I'm not a betting man, but I'd comfortably place a bet to agree with you.

My prediction is Musk will become less and less stable, more and more flamboyant and performative, and less and less effective.

He's already saying he suffers from occasional AI psychosis, and there is no chance that's going to get better on its own.

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upvoteby ChrisGreenHeur3 hours ago|
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It will be his robot typing the message for him at that point
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