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At this rate the frontier labs will be Anthropic and DeepSeek, with OpenAI struggling to keep up.
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OpenAI's models -- and even Google's Argon -- have particular niches where they shine. For GPT-6/6.1, it's 3D modeling; Astra is hands-down the best at making .step files, Blender files, etc. For Argon, it's natural language writing and everything that hooks up to Google, e.g. search and maps-based itinerary planning.

Anthropic and DeepSeek (+ GLM) are definitely solving coding, though!

They're all quite different tools.

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Artificial Analysis recently released a dedicated 3D benchmark, where Astra lags behind both Opus and Sonnet 5.5 (and yes, open weight models seem to be quite far behind).

https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/aa-3d

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Interesting!

For me it's large files in Blender (in some cases >400MB), mostly, where Astra excels. I gave it a look, but I don't know if the benchmark encompasses that sort of thing.

.step files are simpler pieces of straightforward code, so it makes sense that Opus and Sonnet 5.5 do very well...

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its unfortunate they didn't include deepseek in the initial batch of benchmarks
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I believe these are the last sets of super-high-end models available to public (open or closed).. these companies probably will now start to withhold top-of-the-line models for themselves, governments, and their super-high-paying partners only.
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That hasn't been the way to bet. DeepSeek and the other Chinese firms show no signs of slowing down, so if OAI and Anthropic halt releases and "pace the frontier" they'll just fall behind. (And there's a chance that high-end AI will become fully commoditized, which suits DeepSeek just fine.)

Besides, Fable 5.5 is reportedly releasing within the next few days, probably on Tuesday...

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China just announced tightened export controls on AI models, for what it's worth.
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I really, REALLY hope this is a joke.
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I wish it was…

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-proposes-ad...

They’ve technically got expedited approval for open weight models I think, but it still needs approval. And frontier level stuff gets extra scrutiny

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News from a near future:

Here's How Distill APT Used McKinsey's Private Access To Top Anthropic Model To Help The Chinese Keep Up With The Us Top IA Labs Despite Access Restrictions

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We have the weights, we have the papers, nothing preventing development on this foundation.
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Except compute
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Do you think we are near the theoretical maximums of how much model we cram into 20B?
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I don't consider myself qualified to make that call, though I believe there's plenty of room for improvement. But I don't mean inference compute, which is fairly accessible for well-off enthusiasts even now. Training is a lot more expensive though.
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Back in the day we had seti@home, prime95 and fold@home. We will make it work.
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idk, sol 6.1 is both cheap and capable. i've been using it exclusively, i don't need to care about usage, and it's really smart.

yes maybe opus 5.5 is stronger and flash is cheaper, but 6.1 strikes a good balance imo.

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OpenAI models don’t come close to competing with deepseek in cost quality ratio. I have a $20 plus plan and I run out of my 5h limit in literal minutes, every tick of the harness is like 10% of my 5h limit.

You can in contrast get far more done with $20 worth of deepseek api spend. No comparison.

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maybe, but sol 6.1 is far more capable than deepseek, and i love deepseek
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i have a feeling that Sol is just Astra low, but with lowest possible priority on the compute.
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I believe it's Astra quantized. It was briefly named astra-lite.
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