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The problem is you're focused on 1st order effects. I presume you work at some company that sells a product or provides a service - what happens if the demand for that evaporates because the clients can do it themselves or the market has been flooded by much cheaper alternatives created using AI? Or people who bought the product can't do it as they lost their jobs to automation?

by jerf24 minutes ago|

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First, I've already thought about the second-order effects and disagree that the second order effects are that all software vendors in all spaces get wiped out: https://jerf.org/iri/post/2026/what_value_code_in_ai_era/

Second, if "all software vendors in all spaces get wiped out" was going to happen I think we'd be seeing more of it already. Yes, there is support for some software vendors possibly getting wiped out... but, then again, you can't look at a bad vibe coded implementation of "the entire Adobe suite" that was rather overblown in the press coverage and forget that Adobe also has AIs. Instead what I'm seeing at my own workplace as we ponder the question of "should we replace this service we buy with some local vibe coding" is still remaining but we don't want to support that. Can we replace Confluence with vibe coding? Yes, but that was true five years ago too and we didn't want to do it then, either. We still don't want to do it. HN commenters have always overestimated the desire everyone in the world has to become programmers and take responsibility for everything.

One wonders what percentage of those who are certain that vibe coding is going to nuke all software vendors can't even be arsed to self-host a Jellyfin or VaultWarden install... which is way easier than vibe coding the whole of those things from scratch, and we're talking about people who are already programmers. Physician, heal thyself.