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There are hundreds of benchmarks (all noisy), dozens of model families, and dozens of modes and variants within each. Announcements are crafted by publicity teams and involve cherry picking a chart that looks compelling.

As a prospective user, none of of the benchmarks details will matter to you, but the family of models and settings they peg themselves against can give you a hint of where you might want to evaluate them within your own workflows.

As an enthusiast or lay researcher, the more interesting thing is to look at their techniques and any innovations they're exploring in training, inference, etc. Those are usually going to be details tucked below the fold and won't be summarized in a benchmark chart.

As anybody else, why do you even care about this in the first place?

This doesn't just apply to AI. You should know better than to take marketing announcements at face value, nor trust that most "influencers" or "journalists" or "commenter" repeating and discussing those announcements are doing a lot of work as they buzz over what's said.

Don't be a victim to PR spin, but also don't discount potentially interesting work just because it got channeled through a marketing team. Just look for the information you need amidst the noise or move on if there's none there.

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> Announcements are crafted by publicity teams and involve cherry picking a chart that looks compelling.

*crafted by LLMs with a list of PR guidelines in a markdown file

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Because they selectively choose which benchmarks to highlight and which competing models to compare against; they don't always compare against the SOTA or the Pareto frontier of performance/price, a lot of times you'll see them compare against the last generation of competing models, or the like, so that they look better if you don't carefully consider what they're comparing against.

For example, here you see they are comparing against Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, when Opus 5.5, Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, and GPT-6.1 Sol would be the latest SOTA models from those labs to compare against.

Also because a lab's own benchmarks tend to run about 6.4% better than third party runs of the same benchmark. Source: https://whatmodel.sh/claims This can happen due to a number of factors, and doesn't necessarily indicate anything nefarious. It could just be that they run multiple times while fixing issues that aren't related to the model, and have a selection bias towards stopping when the score is on the higher side. But since you see that sometimes their own scores are lower than the independent runs, some of the variation is explained just by variance in the model solving problems, since LLMs are nondeterministic there can be variation from run to run and you don't see labs always cheating, just potentially a bit of selection bias about when they stop tweaking their benchmark setup and publish the results.

And yes, there are independent third party runs of benchmarks for just this reason. The most popular with broad coverage of a range of benchmarks is https://artificialanalysis.ai/ but there are a number of others as well.

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> LLMs are nondeterministic

Being pedantic - LLMs are deterministic software, that is chaotic and typically deployed with a PRNG seed. An LLM ran using the same seed will produce the same output consistently (theoretically - in practice this isn’t always the case because of changing factors wrt the execution environment given how sensitive/chaotic models are).

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In many cases they are not deterministic even with a deterministic seed because many runtimes embrace races that interact with floating point rounding to improve latency.
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Ah, that’s interesting. That is what I was attempting to cover with my last parenthesis but I was mot aware of that!
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in practice, as actually used, LLMs are nondeterministic.

It is possible, if you control the execution environment sufficiently, and are careful not to use certain kinds of parallelism which can lead to nondeterminism, and you set the seed deterministically and ensure that the prompts are byte identical, you can operate them deterministically.

But no one actually does all of that. Almost everyone uses cloud hosted APIs where the provider could change any number of variables at any time. Everyone wants faster cheaper inference so uses inference engines which may trade off a certain amount of determinism for more speed. Different versions of harnesses and chat templates and benchmark software may introduce small differences in text.

And even though the cloud providers have in the past offered seed and system fingerprints to try to give people a way to control or detect non-determinism (see https://developers.openai.com/cookbook/examples/reproducible...), that has all been deprecated and removed in the newer APIs.

So yeah, while in theory it's possible that if you control the whole stack you can get deterministic results, that's not how anyone is using it, and there is no way for third party benchmarks to ensure deterministic results of hosted models, the latest APIs don't even support it at all.

This whole "well, actually, LLMs are deterministic if you hold them right" is a red herring. In any actual real-world use, they are basically always non-deterministic.

And of course, there are reasons that providers have dropped these attempts at providing deterministic results; because the results are chaotic, perturbed by small changes in input, it's almost never useful to try to make them act deterministic or detect when non-determinism has happend. Instead, it's better to think about them non-deterministically, and look at the distribution of results, rather than just considering a single pass or fail on a single test to be meaningful.

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Fair. I wasn’t advocating for “holding them right”, I feel it’s an important nuance to keep in mind when conceptualizing them, i.e. it’s procedural, determistic, yet both inherently and in practice extremely chaotic and therefore not practically deterministic software.
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You have to read between the lines (or wait for someone on HN to do it for you).

It's never "cheaper and faster and more intelligent", it's pick 2. Sometimes (as was the case this month), it was "cheaper per token, but reasons five times as much", so your costs go up.

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the nice thing about local models is you can limit reasoning and keep things even all the time.
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I run a benchmark and independently check all new models. They are very spiky.

If you are doing coding only then official benchmarks are mostly right, but as many people are starting to do for instance marketing work with LLMs now there’s very little correlation between coding and creativity for instance.

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No model is creative. But, some simulate taste better than others.
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This seems worse across the board compared to latest DeepSeek Flash, except on some automation bench.

So, I can quickly judge that this is an interesting option only if cheaper or faster than DeepSeek.

Based on Terminal Bench 4.0, I'd also guesstimate behind GPT 5.6 Sol, so of course behind the SOTA as expected.

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I've got a corollary question, which is "how big is the market for these never ending model announcements?" ... I guess its mostly people coding with agents. Most general AI users are just asking ChatGpt to word an email for them or whatever. How many AI users are on here looking for the next model announcement and working out if the price per token is better? Are we talking like 50,000 developers? More? Less?
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Openrouter does >600 trillion tokens a month and the top models shift on a daily basis. A lot of people are paying attention to new releases and even pre-releases (which tend to be free)
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Karpathy estimates 20 million IIRC
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I have this idea that the big labs internally have much more capable models which are prohibitively expensive to run though, and the competition is mainly around getting the price down by releasing models that are quantized/otherwise made more efficient at the cost of a lot of performance.
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It's always cheaper (*than the next more expensive model) and better (*than the next worse model).

And often they also don't mention how verbose it is, that the same text splits into more tokens than in competing models, how slow it is, that the pricing is temporary, that the cost per task actually isn't that good despite being both cheap and capable.

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Can't you control verbosity? Of course defaults are going to be optimized for revenue. Isn't Deepseek second in cost_per_task:intelligence?

Edit: You removed model names ig

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