To me, this mostly shows how much our baseline for what counts as “noteworthy” has shifted since ChatGPT came out. I’ve seen more disruptive events in the last couple of years than in the 30 before that.
What would it take to get you excited again? AI discovering that aliens exist?
Hype rather than realistic attempts to solve things is actually a valid explanation for that. They want to give the impression it’s a solve-everything machine even if it’s not well suited to areas outside of CS and math (or really anything where the logic of what is being done is not 1:1 with syntax, which is where LLMs are clearly excelling)
Was anyone under the impression that AI would, in its very first attempt at biological research, suddenly be able to get answers without having to need physical follow-through on its leads? Even if AI had a hypothetical cure for cancer, it would need a human with cancer and a biolab and governmental approval to actually do anything with it.
The nature of biology makes the feedback loops much larger and more expensive, which means the AI has to follow the "normal" collaborative scientific process instead of being able to hunker down in its proverbial study and work all night.
I wonder if this would turn even the most stalwart opponents around.
I could see discussion about such an announcement focusing on exactly what qualifies as an "alien."
In which case congratulations you’ve just been promoted to manager with no pay increase!
Joking aside Ai is doing a large chunk of my job but all it’s done is shifted what I actually spend time on.
It’s not really saved any man hours.
The AI race is going to be won by whoever has enough money to burn to outlast competitors and I'm increasingly skeptical that's going to be Anthropic
Think of it this way. It's as if a public company gives you a certain amount in RSUs that won't vest for a while. A year later, the company is worth 10x more. So they list the increased value of the RSUs they owe you as a loss.
In reality, the fact that this "debt" has ballooned so much is a positive sign - the valuation is high (it's a separate issue whether that valuation is realistic).
Their "real" losses are about $8B.
You only see this kind of sentiment in HN and Bluesky comments, both known for their prescient and never disproven beliefs about tech progress
I think Anthropic actually has enough revenue to function. I think they cover their compute obligations with revenue, I think they can probably cover reasonable salaries too.
I made some calculations earlier, but with 16.8B for Q3, what is the problem? 2.5B per annum should cover the necessary salaries. After that they have 64.7B. Compute obligations over the coming ten years are only 518B. 8x their their current revenue.
I think this is actually a stable business. Probably not compatible with a 2T valuation though, especially not at present interest rates.
Also the handwritten code doesn’t remove the work. If anything, it makes the thinking more difficult (for me) because instead of thinking during the coding, I have to before and after (in iterations).
For big projects I actually go back to tradcoding some to make sure I understand the system, since I’m the one responsible.
Like a lot of tech before it I think the overriding theme is misapplication during a hype cycle.
Im convinced the people letting llms do their jobs are going to get replaced, not by agents but people who use them more reasonably.