Also another aspect: think of the most highly paid workers right now in the US and the companies they work for. Assume that normal people no longer have jobs due to AI. How are these companies going to continue making revenue to pay Anthropic? Anthropic might get a quick buck but a long term growth business is not macro-economically possible for frontier AI businesses.
That's quite a leap to assume there's a ton of money to be made with the casual users sending perhaps a couple of messages a day to real an email and draft a response.
If you are spending 50 - 60 grand a year on a paralegal will you balk at another 5 or 10 that will allow them to do double the work?
The problem with the "double the work" narrative is it ignores the second order effect. You can do twice the work, but so does everyone else. You doubled the supply, was there a massive pent-up demand for lawyers or accountants at the current price point?
OpenAI, Google, the many Chinese labs all have products and several of them likely have better financial positions. At the moment Anthropic have one of the best models but it needs to stay sufficiently above competition for them to capture a large share of the market.
At the same time this year we've seen a move for model diversification as cheaper models become "good enough". If this IPO was 6 months ago I think it might have gone better for them.
The winner take all network effects are probably not there in this case, but still if Anthropic is a large player and has 20-30% of the market they could have a revenue in the hundreds of billions.
Double the size of the market to include most of the rest of the world and the 500B is suddenly under 20% market share.
The tech companies will just parrot "UBI" at that point, but given how adverse they are to being taxed, how UBI would be financed, is an unanswered question.
What does good enough look like for various use cases, when do we hit it, and can these companies guard that territory?
You're also assuming that basically the entirety of the market would go to Anthropic, rather than other providers, which makes no sense.
You are vastly over-estimating the market for AI. The extreme majority of people would never pay a dime for it.
> Employers are reducing AI spending, not increasing it.
n=1 but at $company we are already told to stop tokenmaxing and find cost savings for ai to the point of degrading user facing features (no loading llm generated content by default etc)
from here it looks like prices have to come down or demand will stall...