If you say it yourself first, you make it harder for people to use it against you.
Of course, this is completely over the top nonsense, but the strategy is very effective regardless.
It only has to be until everyone relevant has cashed out.
(narratology, fandom slang) To intentionally call attention to the improbable, incongruent, or clichéd nature of an element or situation featured in a work of fiction within the work itself.
"Cyber Apocalypse"
A: We told you so!
They don't deserve a moat; they deserve criminal prosecution for these flagrant acts. Meanwhile, the rest of the world can go about treating software in the way it always has.
And it also seems to me that prosecuting the people who warned about this 6 months ago for unspecified "flagrant acts" will probably not fix the problem.
This cyber apocalypse narrative is what they tell government and markets.
If this is one of Anthropic's guiding principles, then I must assume that they've only ever promised five 8s of reliability.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226060634/http://ars.userfr...
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226061736/http://ars.userfr...
Sleazy.
The risk is that other models are pretty comparable to Opus since around July.
Unless they have cheaper electricity costs, I can switch models interchangeably.
They don't have a moat.
Gosh I wish it was easier to short stocks. Whatever platform I used made me sell/buy 100, and I wanted to do this short 3 years long, and buy every 6 months.
We know Tesla and SpaceX are going down at some point. But "The Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant."
And bear ETFs are not the same as shorting. I learned this the hard way with $80.
With the amount of money involved here and the current agentic tooling context, how am I ever to take comments like from accounts like this on topics like this at face value?
I went to a birthday party for a kid with first generation Indian Americans that thought they could make money off SpaceX. It was extremely showoffy, they had their cleaning lady carrying around drinks like a butler lol
I warned them it was overvalued.
They thought they could make money quick before it collapsed.
I wonder if they did.
How do we "know" that about SpaceX? Still seems to me like they're basically maintaining their decade lead on everyone else on rocketry. And remaining competitive in their other endeavors as well. To me it doesn't seem at all unreasonable for SpaceX to never be meaningfully cheaper than it is today. But I'm not exactly following SpaceX closely. What am I missing?
The actual difficulty we have with the modern tech company, which is at its worst with Tesla and SpaceX, is that we are really seeing a price or large conglomerates, so they are extremely hard to price. If they were all split into individual companies, how much of the market cap would go to each? I find the bundles to be rather anti-investor.
And no, it's not just those, and not really just tech companies, but that's where the problem is at its worst, as that's where expensive investments some of us consider worthless are tied with business worth something. Take Amazon. You are buying AWS, a logistics company, an ad company, and as part of this, there was always a devices division selling Alexa. I found Alexa to be a real loser from very early, but there was no way for investors to say what they thought the division was worth. The Amazon es execs could at any time decide to invest billions, or invest zero, and given the size of the conglomerate, the price change was going to not be all that high.
SpaceX has many components I would price near zero, where a lot of money is being spent. But as a pile of risky bets, the fact that they are a pile means it's harder to bet against any one, or ten of them. And if it merges with Tesla, that makes it worse. The difficulty in pricing the bundle makes it really easy to hide big mistakes for a while, until they are so big it all crashes. I don't think that is good for investors, or for having accurate pricing, which is one of the goals of a stock market.
These companies have the benefit of a real product at least, but eventually the rubes get fleeced.
I think you'd be better off with 10 year bond yields in France than SpaceX.
Laugh emojis only.
That SpaceX's valuation is almost entirely from being an AI company not a rocket company. Their S-1 put rockets as around 5% of their TAM.
I was a libertarian when I was a child.
Biden never gave me back my SALT Deductions. He did CHIPS Act and tried to cancel student loans.. Obama continued war in the middle east in Syria.
I'm definitely independent.
Uhh, they can’t say that or they’re calling it an intentional underestimate which obviates their claimed caution right?
The IPO was at a market cap of $20 B. And it never dipped below IPO price -- it doubled within a year.
And now GOOG has a market cap of $4 T, so that's 200x in 22 years.
I like Claude, but I think the likelihood that it is over-valued already is higher than it was for Google. (Though I would not really be surprised if it keeps the $2 T valuation and grows. Who knows? And it doesn't matter to me personally)
It looks here in EU most talks recently about souvereign AI and how to quit digital dependence on oversea providers, at least first attempts to decouple. Thus I wonder if is there a place for new serious competitors?
The AI tech itself is likely very liberating - it seems allow to reproduce anything digital with less efforts than ever before, so others may simply replicate your business quickly?
They might be very wrong, but they undoubtedly believe what they wrote and what they put in the S1
How does that "life creation" promise affect anything with the topic of the post, which is the financial valuation of the company?
Does that increase the financial valuation of the company? Expose risks in the S-1 that they haven't properly accounted for?
I don't read many Anthropic blog posts, but usually it's about a model release, interpretability research, or similar, and I haven't seen any of this marketing that you have. That said, they did somehow spend $2B on sales in the last quarter, almost 10x what it was in the prior quarter, and I don't get exposed to advertising anywhere; is this something that's getting played on TV? Billboards? Somewhere else?
The topic of this subthread, which you replied to, was about the sheer absurdity of this statement: "This is in fact very similar to one of Anthropic's guiding principles: underpromise and overdeliver."
That's it. Whatever you're going on about with financial valuations and S-1 risk is completely irrelevant to what you were replying to, because I was not making any kind of claim about those.
I'm really baffled that you think that Anthropic has been promising the creation of life! Even if it's not meant to have anything to do with this subthread or post.
No it isn't, it's just about the absurdity of that statement vs. their usual marketing bullshit and what they actually deliver.
Anthropic [employees] huffing their own koolaid fumes aside, it’s extremely difficult to believe the claims that these mega valuations are substantiated on (*one* company somehow assuming a meaningful fraction of global research and production)
Unless "cosmic DC8" (whatever that is) has S1 with data thus string, what possible comparison could there be?
These financials are very very strong. They alleviated many doubts I had about Anthropic's viability (namely I wasn't sure training+experiments could fit in the compute budget and keep them profitable).
We have the numbers right here. Comparisons to Scientology and Elizabeth Holmes are more similar to Scientology than what we see in the S1.
But the top two customers are 12%, which is less customer concentration than I would have expected