Most people buy their apples from the same grocery store every week. They're not shopping around every month to find who has the cheapest apples or 'best' apples. They go where they're accustomed to going, and as long as price and quality are satisfactory, they have little reason to change. Walmart, price-sensitive as they are, have relationships with fruit suppliers they've maintained for well on a decade. Even in commoditized markets, people are sticky.

Google, the titan mega-corp with more money than they know what to do with and a billion+ android devices to ship gemini on and it's made no dent for ChatGPT's consumer growth and adoption. Yet some plucky open source chinese models will?. It takes more than that.

Yes it is. Tiktok's content and content recommendation algorithms are much better than Instagram. Users spend more time on Tiktok than they do Instagram and it's not close. Tiktok's engagement rates are several times better than Instagram. Reels did nothing to dent it (yet another example in the book). Again, nobody will care about Chinese models if they're just more of the same. They can take a piece of the pie, but this idea that they'll spell doom for the frontier labs is nonsense.