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Tinfoil hat thoroughly fixed upon my head, but a part of me kind of thinks that this might have been a long-game from big tech in the same vein as Grapes of Wrath.

Software engineers make a lot of money, at least historically because of supply/demand mechanics. By suddenly and continuously flooding the market with lots and lots of software engineers, you effectively can bring down wages, since if people are unemployed long enough they're likely to take a lower salary.

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The FAGMAN companies got caught colluding to depress wages by avoiding hiring people already employed by the others, so they learned to accomplish the same thing without writing it down by having these periodic huge layoffs across the entire industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L...
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> The FAGMAN companies

For sardonic reasons, I prefer "MANNA".

It seems heavenly until the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin.

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I remember hearing about that.

Of course, this is just when they got caught doing it. Who knows how often it happens where they don't.

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> The FAGMAN companies

Buahahahaaha

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They (the industry) have always wanted to find a way to do this. Tools like Rational Rose and Visual Basic were touted as being able to do this. Sending work overseas is another way. AI is just the next in line.

I don't know what the overall answer is, but I would say that if you have high demand skills, you can still earn a living.

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>Software engineers

This Microsoft deal for the large part is not being offered to software engineering orgs.

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The measurers? Software engineers have a lot of extra time to measure things now and are still much more valuable..
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Only works if employees can't found something new. Which might be the case right now.

Really, it feels like we're in a quiet depression.

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The 3% growth in the us market is virtually (90%+?) all in AI company valuations/investment. It is a depression, that hasnt been announced. Wait till after midterms for the blame to be leveled with the announcement.
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Yep. We'll be told to argue over our collective political beliefs while corporations and billionaires continue to drive the economy for the 99% into the crapper. It's a machine that cannot stop until we all have nothing left.
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If you believe in government-measured CPI, sure. No one I know (very median people) would say they’re doing better economically now than ever before. Literally zero people I know would say that.
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What is your definition of depression, exactly?

Besides "sounds cool with shock value online"

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> What is your definition of depression, exactly?

A real GDP decline of over 10% year over year for more than 1 year is the biggest signal. Ofc, I noticed the US Federal Government has been cooking the books since at least H. W. Bush (maybe longer) by including tech stock potential gains as part of GDP. Take out tech stocks, the US economy looks like it will to historians.

Even in the modern day, an economic depression is associated with massive unemployment, deflation, reductions in the trifecta of industrial output + consumer spending + international trade, with the final kicker being reduced credit availability. Currently, interest rates are relatively high (historically middling) which has effectively restricted consumer credit, while the national credit rating has fallen.

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You can't just randomly exclude entire sectors of an economy.
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Definitely
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If they actually had a need for those software engineers right now, they wouldn't play that game. (Or rather, if they could make more money by having them create something than they could save on wages from playing the game.)

But at that point, they almost should be laying off engineers, even without playing any such game.

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To me it does not seem like any bigger conspiracy than people always wanted to pay less and earn more at the same time.
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I was looking at the graph a few days ago. Doesn't look great https://www.hnhiringtrends.com/
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Why is MS doing this after the latest troubles with VP Vance regarding layoffs?
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Seems like a good way to avoid the bad PR. This offer will be disproportionately taken by citizens and avoided by visa workers.

Can’t claim MS is firing citizens and replacing them with H1Bs, if they are leaving voluntarily.

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I highly doubt it’s a factor. If we learned anything in the last 10 years, is that you can’t unflood the zone with facts. The administration is going to say what they are going to say and signal to their target audience. Corporations are going to do what they need to do. Their target audiences barely overlap.
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I'm not aware of this. But if I were to speculate, maybe they feel some freedom because they thing the midterms will be a change.
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Maybe, but they would have months before the results of the midterms practically affect them.
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"There are recessions where you need to switch from equities into bonds. And there are recessions where you need to stock up on beans and shotgun shells."
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