It seems highly irrational to bet that your evaluation is more likely than Aaronson's.
replyPredictions markets are terrible mechanisms for this, because they require imposing an arbitrary time limit at which point the prediction will pay out. IOW, even if you religiously believed P=NP, but you think it would take at least two years to prove it, you would vote against the prediction if the deadline were one year.
replyWhy must prediction markets have a predefined end date?
replyWithout it, capital would be trapped indefinitely.
replyThis is not necessarily true, you could have contracts rather than money down
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replyHow would it work otherwise...?
replyAnybody can exit their contract by selling their contract to an interested party
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