I can supply anecdotal evidence - of all the people I stay in touch with only one person occasionally opens IDE to write code. This transcends from interactive client apps through novel database engines.
AI is undergoing cosmic inflation, we get further apart faster.
This feels like a photographer telling a painter that they're at a massive disadvantage and that no human paints by hand anymore. Meanwhile painters still exist and are probably not particularly upset by how many pictures per second a DSLR can do.
> like someone writing out machine code by hand vs using a compiler back in the day
Programming using a compiler is still the same kind of thing, just in a different language.
This is a silly take. I think you underestimate how talented some programmers can be. I think you also overestimate how far being good at coding will get you. Pre-LLM, the job was maybe 30% coding. So at worst someone who codes by hand is only disadvantaged by a manageable amount.