I'm not saying it will "fall apart", I just think the burden of proof is on AI boosters for their extraordinary claims.
replyThey are saying this thing will soon obsolete human thought; meanwhile I use these tools every day and can't get it to refactor a React app cleanly without making a mess.
It's telling that OpenAI's decided they're going to sell ads in ChatGPT. Instead of, you know, using their AI themselves to produce all these valuable and revolutionary breakthroughs they claim it's capable of making.
Like how Anthropic has started to run their own biology labs?
replyProbably wildly irresponsible given they think it's likely to kill everyone with a virus, but yes.
replyIf you have a super-intelligent AI that can cure cancer, just sell the cure for cancer already?
Medicine is a slow moving field. If they discovered the cure today how many years will it take to be certified as safe and effective by medical boards? More years than they have runway, in all likelihood.
replyThat's another way of saying the same thing: even if AI is great, there's all kinds of reasons why it won't be a new industrial revolution.
replyIntelligence is very rarely the limiting reagent in progress.