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Same feeling here for OpenAI. Though in my case I knew I wasn't getting it even before the interviews. The first interview was a guy who was a serial founder and the other one was previously a senior staff engineer at FAANG. And if I would’ve been hired, I’d be at the same level as them. I did okay in the interview but clearly didn’t have the experience on paper that they were looking for.
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Who knows, maybe you never would've been a "culture fit" even if you passed the coding test. By the same logic, if only I picked 2 - 4 - 18 - 50 - 56 - 20 on Powerball last week I would be $760 million richer. It's only a few numbers to get right, wild to think I was that close to being rich!
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not even comparable. Lotto is entirely random, signals that anthropic would be hugely successful were not random, but access to the upsides were gated on who had sufficiently amassed capital to buy in
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Kind of interesting how people feel this way. What if I said that anthropic's current valuation was dependent on a bunch of folks getting rejected? Because if you were hired, then others like you would have been hired. Would there have been as much progress or luck with many folks like you? Don't take me wrong, it's not that you are bad at what you do, it's just that you can't guarantee the same present outcome at all.

It's the same claim like bitcoin. Many would say that if they bought bitcoin, then they would've had a massive return. But the bitcoin price is the way that it is because of people not buying early. There's no guarantee that the price would've moved the same if you bought earlier.

Figured I'd just give some food for thought to hopefully make you feel better.

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Sounds like if I'm smart enough and lucky enough I would have several Billions in my bank account.
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But let's be honest, it's mostly luck. Luck being born in the right country, luck being born at the right parents, luck being surrounded by the right social circles. Being smart definitely matters, but it's just a compounding effect on the very large foundation.
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Luck is variance and in the US we see the variance is capital transfers from government to family networks that control the corporations and university boards and initiatives

Historians have long debated how rich families and in the last century, rich countries, engage in pay to play for their kids while everyone else's hoe potatoes

Back in the middle ages it was studying theology and convincing the poors to confess sin now it's social theory and therapy to confess feeling anything but allegiance to the factory to grave mindset foisted on blue collar America

Neuroscience has revealed brainwave sync between human meat suits is a physical reality; so we're basically just rsyncing the American conditioning among each other engaging in constant parroting of the civil religion's allowances[1] that there be gentile Mr Burns haves and thoughtless drone sycophants

Absolute quackery[2]. Kirk made whoopie with green skin hotties. Han bounced around. Yet for some reason everyone with power is like "boring missionary with no lights on and zero talking!"

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_civil_religion

[2] https://www.them.us/news/elon-musk-anakin-posting

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> It’s hard to mentally reconcile that if I had performed better on a few coding tests a few years ago, I would be 100x wealthier than I am today.

Wealth like this sounds great to those not that wealthy, but those experiencing it often aren't any happier than those who have their needs met. Look at any of the tech (b|tr)illionaires; do they seem as genuinely happy/content as the neighbor down the street who gardens regularly and has a tight-knit group of friends and family they spend time with?

Don't get me wrong, money is great! But the "keeping up with the joneses" never stops. You quickly adjust your mindset and feel poor compared to your buddy who has 400 million dollars.

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I can assure you that if I had a $40M payday that I'd cash out, never work a day in my life again, and be perfectly content.

Of course that's also part of why I'll never be in a position to achieve a $40M payday, so there's that.

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> Wealth like this sounds great to those not that wealthy

It’s also great to the wealthy. Speaking as someone moderately wealthy myself.

Not having to worry about day to day bills, being able to splurge on friends and family for a celebration or when they have an emergency, being able to travel to see things because you read about it in a book and want to check it out, not caring about your credit score and being able to single-handed direct non-profit efforts to achieve civic outcomes they’d otherwise have to spend months fundraising for, all of these are tremendously rewarding. I agree that once folks get into the billionaire bucket there seems to be a negative return on wealth. But going from having to think about the mortgage to not is a major step up in quality of life, and it’s something of a sour-grapes middle class myth that I also grew up with which preaches that wealth isn’t actually all that, hard work is the reward yada yada.

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Paper wealth unless you actually sell. I know several people who were paper decamillionaires in the dot-com boom and then their equity was worth literally zero a year later.

For that matter, that could easily happen to Anthropic millionaires. There's usually a 6-month lockup on employee sales after IPO. They are hoping the stock market (and specifically Anthropic stock) does not crash in the 6 months before they can sell, and this is far from a given in a rising interest rate environment with the potential for renewed hostilities against Iran. They also to be sensible enough to take profits off the table and diversify when they can, which not everybody is.

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Fwiw, Anthropic are doing some weird staggered lockup thing, so employees shares start coming online in some strange way much sooner.

I dont remember the details, but its not safe to assume that the first 6m have no employee-shares being sold.

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Anthropic's staggered lockup only applies to certain classes of insiders, which does not appear to include regular employees.

It basically allows officers and directors to sell even more of their stock than a normal lockup period would allow for. The only reason for allowing this is if the stock price is expected to drop significantly between the IPO and the expiration of the standard lockup period.

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we learn the falseness of human exceptionalism at different rates, some learn it on their death beds.
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feel better man, you probably weren't in the running unless you already had an amazing resume, top-tier schools, connections, etc. They have 10,000x applicants for positions, they are probably hard filtering on harvard, MIT, Stanford, etc. They are very far from "we just need someone who is good enough at coding". Its more like harvard where they have 3x total open slots of people with 4.0, perfect SAT/ACT, and extra curriculars. That's why its down to "culture fit" and "gut feel" (e.g. connections).

Now if you already have those things (top-tier school, connections, world-class experience on resume), you can probably still and a cushy overpaid position somewhere, just look for somewhere else they are lighting money on fire.

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It's gambling, and semi random. Don't feel bad. Same as stock picks, etc.
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It’s not really random when it was clear on account of the caliber of people working there that it was going to be a generational company whether the AI boom took longer or not. The writing was on the wall by the time Opus 3 came out, after it was just a matter of who was worthy for a ticket on the arc.
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I felt the same way when I was actively being recruited by Runway ML years ago. It feels like if I had half the knowledge I do now, I would've been the second QA hire (and I had heard that the person they hired instead of me had left with some controversy). My biggest flub was asking an EM about their CI/CD and she took this to mean 'explain CI/CD to me as a basic concept' - something I didn't realize until after the interview.

They got a 300 million Series E about a year after that flub ;_;

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Same thing could be said of dot com era. Sure the Internet changed everything, but not every company was a winner, quite the contrary.
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You have 4 million dollars. Be happy about that.
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I believe you need to divide by another ten
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Good point. I’m a Europoor who got carried away with envy.
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You'll have the last laugh when the bubble finally bursts.
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Even if there is a bubble, there will be dozens of liquidity events along the way
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Yeah this hits the sentiment on the head, and I think shows the psychic damage of a system sliding into extreme inequality. My friend group seems to sit along this divide, and it's hard to see the impact that this sort of rumination can have on incredibly brilliant people.
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