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> Much of what's happening is less like 'calculations in the back of their head' and more like 'pattern recognition'.

Sometimes it really looks like "calculations in the back of your head". Have you ever been struck with a 5 moves long tactics in positions you've never seen? Because I have.

There are hardly any other explanations than subconscious calculation.

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> It's more of a memory thing than subconscious calculation.

Would you make the move based on vibes alone in a non-blitz game? The calculation is still required and it is faster for those already familiar.

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Vibes is for the initial pruning, that’s why great chess players will sometimes see a computer move and ‘instantly’ realize why it’s so good but in a real game never consider it.
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