I've seen those and they are crazy! Many elections are decided by the primary anyway, and then of course exit polls are going to be basically accurate 2 hours before the election. It's not even that fine print, I think they may actually just be stupid.

this is an answerable question and these markets are generally well calibrated (including on election outcomes), they have a good brier score.

i would not premise an anti-prediction market argument on their accuracy being bad, you are building on shaky foundations. the better argument is the paternalist protecting stupid people from themselves imo.

> They're pure corruption engines designed for insider betting. The top brass of these companies need to be made example of.

is there any surprise then that Trumps are on the boards of both?