If Kalshi is not a gambling operation then it is an unregulated futures market, which is still illegal. There are perverse incentives in futures markets too, which is why they are regulated.
replyAlso speculators serve an important purpose: hedging strategies require speculators on the other side. It is not just a "certain clientele," there are people who run profitable businesses on speculation (it amounts to collecting insurance premiums from people who want hedges).
You're posting this all over the site but Kalshi is very clearly a licensed futures market regulated by the CFTC
replyHow is that at all clear? They are likely subject to CFTC regulations but there are a lot of questions about whether or not they are in compliance.
replyDescribing an organization with a license from the CFTC as an "unregulated futures market" is just flat wrong, I'm not really sure why you're motte-baileying here.
replyThey offer contracts that are almost certainly outside the scope of regulation, an appeals court has already ruled that some of their contracts are indeed subject to state laws and not CFTC regulation, and they are continuing to push the envelope. How is it wrong to call them an unregulated market under the circumstances?
replyBecause they are subject to a regulator and hold a license from a regulator.
replyIf the differentiating factor is just who you’re betting against, how are Kalshi et al any different from online poker? It’s still gambling, the house just takes a rake
replyBecause you can easily collude and cheat at poker so it needs to be heavily regulated or outright illegal to prevent theft. You can't really cheat at prediction markets, unless you have insider information which they can litigate after the fact.
replySurely you’re being facetious, insider trading is obviously a huge problem that is rarely enforced and we’ve already seen instances of people actively influencing events or using false information to fake the result of a bet
reply> You can't really cheat at prediction markets
replyLots of folks gripe about how Kalshi adjudicates contracts.
Besides the brokerage being regulated, stock markets are regulated.
replybasically, does the government have its thumb on the scale makes it legal. Gambling is so bad and illegal, except when the pennsylvania lottery does it. Alcohol, bad and illegal, except when the state monopoly sells it.
replyThat's such a poor argument. Illegal building is bad because it's illegal; illegal gambling is bad because it's illegal. This is just how laws work. Heck, in the US even homicide is bad because it's illegal, when you consider that there is a legal version of it.
replyThere are very good reasons that gambling and financial markets are regulated.
replyYep. Hope they kill Kalshi.
replyDevices that broadcast wifi illegal except when the FCC says so. Damn government with their thumb on the scales.
replyRobinhood is regulated under the SEC and other regulatory bodies and keeps "paper trails" of the trades.
replyand Kalshi is regulated on the CFTC as it is not an securities market that the SEC regulates.
replyIt's really the worst of both combined. There is ample gambling like options and behavior on Kalshi
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policy makers, assistants, journalists, and the like are insider trading - and the president of the united states is intentionally market manipulating for profit