The gambling around which companies, products, etc. is just the imperfect information and greed directing investment.
It's not malinvestment for the winners.
Humans living forever is inevitable. Galactic colonization, inevitable. Over a long-enough time scale.
AI is inevitable on the same time scale, sure. But can it actually survive as a sustainable business given what is needed to keep it relevant—will people pay what it costs to support said business—not clear. Or, at least in the next five years.
The second generation AI companies will be built on different assumptions and will likely be slower-growing, and that’s when you’ll see it truly become ubiquitous. That could be a decade though.
is anyone else weirded out by folks chanting this like a mantra? imagine saying this for any other emergent tech. "NFTs are inevitable", "crypto is inevitable", "excel is inevitable", etc.
inevitability != usefulness/profitability
I'm going to run circles around you. Try to keep up.
Excel was inevitable. How many trillions of hours has it saved?
AI is going to let me do your job and barely lift a finger. Therefore, inevitable.
These are thermodynamically favored technological outcomes.
AI is bigger than the Industrial Revolution, the Internet, than computers, than literally any innovation or invention that has ever come before, combined.
Today you see AI slop and vibe coding.
Tomorrow, all of humanity will be affected, forever.
Everything about the way that we learn, that we think, and that we invent will be changed forever.
Their monopolies got broken and the profits disappear in a commodity market.
If nvidia or tsmc got split up i doubt its stock is going to stay at as a high a p/e.
I think civilization will have time to react and adapt, panic leads to haphazard action, we need deliberate consistent action.
> And today's AI, for as revolutionary as it may be, is taking just as long to mature as anything in the past.
I suspect this opinion may come across as naive for the myriad software engineers whose job has become pressing the enter key. Your point about timing is based on solid principles, but I don't think your comment contains a satisfactory argument that the timing is incorrect.
In every bubble some say this. And it could be the exact same herd behavior (mentality) that creates a bubble.