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At the last moment the exhaust turned green. That's consistent with the fuel running out, the engines running oxygen rich, and subsequently "engine rich". So I would put my money on actually running out vs a measurement error.
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I heard somewhere the engine efficiency is still somewhat variable so they burned more fuel than anticipated.
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That's basically what Musk said, yes: that they need to work on both engine performance and performance consistency. He said they'd be cutting off the main engines one second sooner to provide more margin for boost-back.

Amazing that a one-second difference can matter, but those things go through tons of fuel every one of those seconds!

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