You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous. Most of them only stop driving when they cause an accident. Sometimes its a serious one.
replyThere are already some measures for young people, like the 6 point thing. Maybe there could be more. Doesn't change the facts about dangerous OAP drivers
> Most over-70s are significantly worse than the average driver and some are so dangerous they shouldn't be on the road at all.
reply> You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous.
You sure about that?
Over 70s do have higher rates of accidents per 100m over average, although it is small until you get to 80+.
reply“I'm talking about a significant minority of [under 25 year olds] who are wildly dangerous.” (Edit mine)
replyDon’t you think that statement is also true?
16 year olds get better at driving.
replyThey also get less likely to commit crime, but that’s not how we gauge risk. We don’t generally say “that teenager’s crime risk is going down so they are less risky than that geriatric whose crime risk is fairly constant.” Risk probability is usually a hazard rate integral across an interval.
replyOver a long enough interval, that reduction in risk would be important. So what is the appropriate time interval for these risk assessments?
Yes - I’ve seen the pricing algorithms at several large insurers. Massive surcharges for young people 16-25, rates level out 30-55, and then slowly start to go back up, but it’s a slow increase compared to the young ones.
reply> The worst age group behind the wheel is by far 16-25. The middle age group is the safest and the gap is actually moderate compared to 70-75.
replyRetest everyone's skill every 3-5 years (whenever up for driver card renewal).
AIUI, that's a misleading figure, because the elderly self-correct, in awareness of the greater difficulty, by driving a lot less, so the greater danger is masked in the per-unit-time accident rate.
replySo, in theory, policy could appropriately adjust for this dynamic by only requiring the test of over-70s driving more than X miles/year, but that adds hassle to enforcement.