Why dont you just copy the trades?
replyIf I'm an insider with 100% confidence, I'll take all offers at a certain price as long as I can afford it. Similar story for lower levels of confidence (but still inside info). There won't necessarily be any left for you to copy at a viable price.
replyThe examples didn’t look like they’ve completely emptied the orderbook
replyBecause there's always some uncertainty and capital limits. But the uncertainty about the outcome is itself inside info, and that's compounded with your own uncertainty about the insider as a copy trader. So the insider will empty out certain price levels only, and your certainty is strictly less than theirs, meaning you have even fewer viable levels to buy.
reply> Similar story for lower levels of confidence
replytherefore, the polymarket betting odds will reflect the truth - even if that info is a secret that nobody else but the insider knows. And if this is the case, then even an outsider could make use of the odds as a source of info which would ensure that market efficiency (which is about the flow of information) is high.
So what's wrong with insider trading again?
That someone with inside information will e.g. make 500% while those late to the party e.g. only get 10%? (of course your example is not very realistic to begin with)
replySo is any kind of business illegal? Making investments?
replyIt rewards blatant corruption? What's the benefit is the bigger question.
replyPast performance is not an indicator of future performance.
replyShouldn't it be if you suspect they are executed by an insider?
replyYou can't be sure that they are an insider or lucky, just from onchain data.
replyIf they make single market predictions with high accuracy it is very very likely they are
replyNo vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account. They would make unlinkable bets on fresh accounts.
reply> No vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account.
replyThere seem to be quite a few non-vigilant insiders. That's the very premise of the post we're discussing.
This is unsurprising to anyone who's seen the various ways people get busted for insider trading in equities.
Also insider trading is A-OK on prediction markets!
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