> yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5
What other question would you like to be backtested? This one is fairly easy
For example, for markets that are between 60 and 70, is it the case that around 65% of them resolve to yes?
I guess you want to take a certain time before out finishes, so focus on sports.
If you put all your money on no, you get 4% if you win, and if Jesus comes back and you lose, money won't matter.
This locks up your money in the meantime, right? If so, considering the fed funds rate is 3.64% (and you can probably get higher rates on stablecoins), a huge chunk of those "winnings" is going to be eaten up by the opportunity cost of the money.
For example, recent events show that any bet can be selectively disputed by arbitrary reason ("we found insiders", "we found this immoral/illegal", etc.).
And for perpetual events - there is not a single week without a hack (https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/)
Who does "you" refer to in this sentence? Polymarket itself?
I'm pretty sure if Polymarket itself decides it wants to screw you, you're gonna lose no natter what your strategy is.