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> And there's also opportunity costs.

That's not really how it works. ITER has a budget measured in billions over multiple years, the global energy industry is trillions every year. The amount needed to do the research is such a small proportion that if there is even a tiny possibility that it could long-term provide a significant proportion of world energy, it's well worth doing the research. The scientific knowledge gain is just icing on the cake.

> That's a lot of time for the world to get worse while waiting for fusion to happen, and we might as well just throw renewables at the problem now instead of waiting.

We can do two things at once.

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ITER is a many stakeholders project, with all it's advantages (the costs can be split among participants, international cooperation) and disadvantages (each government wants a piece of the pie - components are manufactured at many subcontractors, in multiple countries) and politics (for example the multi-year process for selecting a ITER location).

The bigger, principal problem of ITER is the used magnet technology (niobium–tin, niobium–titanium). This was safe and conservative choice in 1990s, but as consequence the tokamak has to be big and therefor expensive to build.

Commonwealth Fusion Systems is currently building a tokamak based on the same physics as ITER, but with modern magnet technology using rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) high-temperature superconductors. Their ARC tokamak should be smaller and cheaper than ITER.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARC_fusion_reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_Fusion_Systems

Of all the fusion energy startups Commonwealth Fusion Systems is nearest to demonstrating a realistic fusion power plant.

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ITER is not our best bet for commercial fusion. ITER was a peace project between the USA and the Soviet Union.

https://www.cfs.energy

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Side note, all fusion start ups have built upon decades of science research funded in the ITER program, so opposing ITER to fusion start ups is misleading
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ITER is definitely the best bet for a workable fusion concept. There are some unsolved issues left, but its nothing compared to the sci-fi solutions most US startups would require.
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CFS is ITER with better magnets.
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Did you click the link? Nothing “sci-fi” about commonwealth fusion systems..
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CFS is the most promising of the US startups. The reason being they have partially pivoted away from fusion towards superconducting magnets. Tbf their concept is also the most likely to succeed.

It is still more sci-fi than conventional fusion developments like ITER.

Source: I work in the field.

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Storing renewables for a whole season is an unsolved problem at the moment. Countries at higher latitudes might want fusion for baseload generation during winter. And later it'll help with climbing the Kardashev scale.
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But there's far easier solutions to that than fusion.

For example, HVDC. Interconnect and buy power from somebody with more sun. Or just overbuild solar by a lot. It's cheap, so chances are having too much of it still works out economically.

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> HVDC

Sorry, no. Our recent experiences during the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed us that we cannot trust energy sources outside our own borders.

> overbuild solar

The effective sunlight in November in Finland is measured in single-digit hours per month. That's not a joke, or an exaggeration. Solar is completely out of the question.

Right now, the only carbon-free solution is fission. Fusion potentially adds another, but that's far off still.

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> Sorry, no. Our recent experiences during the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed us that we cannot trust energy sources outside our own borders.

You could trust Sweden, Estonia, etc. since they're all in the EU. Also Norway. But overall good point.

> Right now, the only carbon-free solution is fission. Fusion potentially adds another, but that's far off still.

I've never been to Finland, but I'm sure there's some wind there too.

But on the subject of war, fission turns out to be a huge vulnerability for Ukraine. Fusion would be better but it'd still be extremely expensive infrastructure that could be very easily disabled. So from the war standpoint what's probably most beneficial is a very distributed usage of wind/solar.

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> You could trust Sweden, Estonia, etc. since they're all in the EU. Also Norway. But overall good point.

Your neighbors have winter at the same time as you. HVDC only solves this problem if it goes very far.

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> You could trust Sweden, Estonia, etc. since they're all in the EU. Also Norway. But overall good point.

No. I wasn't just referring to loss of supply from Russia. What I was referring to was that when supply from Russia was lost, every country in the EU scrambled to secure their own supply, essentially competing on who could fuck over their neighbors the most. (It was Germany. Germany wins that prize.) No supply outside our borders can be trusted.

> I've never been to Finland, but I'm sure there's some wind there too.

Finland is subject to a weather phenomena where a stable anticyclone forms over the country, resulting in a high-pressure system that's essentially still. In winter, this can result in weeks of dead calm during the coldest temperatures experienced in the country. We already have a lot of wind capacity, and whenever this happens the electricity prices spike sky high.

> But on the subject of war, fission turns out to be a huge vulnerability for Ukraine. Fusion would be better but it'd still be extremely expensive infrastructure that could be very easily disabled.

We are a NATO member, and we have our own long range strike capability. If Russia directly attacks, Moscow will burn, which is why they likely won't. But Putin likes to play these hybrid games, where he tries his best to fuck over everyone without directly attacking.

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> For example, HVDC. Interconnect and buy power from somebody with more sun.

Who is Japan interconnecting with, or any other country that doesn't trust its neighbors? What is Canada supposed to do when it's ~6000 km from the equator and might not want to rely on the US for electricity regardless?

> Or just overbuild solar by a lot. It's cheap, so chances are having too much of it still works out economically.

Solar is cheap per kWh but those kWh come disproportionately in the sunnier months of the year at any non-equatorial latitude. To build enough for January you'd then have oversupply and a price of zero for the nine months out of the year when you have the most output, requiring you to make back the entire cost in the three months when solar output is lowest. Then you're only getting paid anything for e.g. 12.5% of the kWh you generate (the 25% of the months that have 50% of the average output) which means you need the price during those months to be 8x the average price you need to break even, but then you're not cheaper than existing alternatives. And that's before you even deal with nights or cloudy winter days.

It obviously makes sense to use solar to reduce the need for natural gas plants during hot summer days with a lot of air conditioning demand, or for charging electric cars that can hold off a couple days if it's cloudy. It equally obviously doesn't make sense to try to generate 100% of electricity from the same intermittent source whose output is regionally correlated by season and weather systems.

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> What is Canada supposed to do when it's ~6000 km from the equator and might not want to rely on the US for electricity regardless?

Most Canadians live quite far south. Toronto is on the same latitude as France’s Mediterranean coast and they of course have plentiful hydropower. Solar is surprisingly useful even in more northerly places like the UK or Denmark since it is anti-correlated with wind power.

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> Most Canadians live quite far south.

"South" in Canada is still north. Calgary (third largest city) is almost 6000 km from the equator. Toronto is the major city furthest south and it's still almost 5000 km.

> Toronto is on the same latitude as France’s Mediterranean coast

Europe is also quite far north. The Mediterranean has warmer temperatures because of ocean currents carrying warm water from the south, not because of its latitude. Toronto is at the same latitude as Wisconsin.

> and they of course have plentiful hydropower.

They get a little over half from that. You still need something to do the other half.

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> Who is Japan interconnecting with, or any other country that doesn't trust its neighbors? What is Canada supposed to do when it's ~6000 km from the equator and might not want to rely on the US for electricity regardless?

With space. By space-based solar power instead of HVDC.

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I would really love to see your per kwh costs estimates. It currently costs about ~$2,700 to launch 1 kg of mass into orbit.

https://spacenexus.us/guide/space-launch-cost-comparison

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power#Launch...

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We have currently only one long term, scalable, low-carbon, low material requirements energy storage technology: nuclear fission power plants.

In 50-100 year we will have another energy storage technology: nuclear fusion power plants.

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Let's be fair here, we're trading one megaproject for another.
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Yes, but we're trading a research megaproject that might not ever live up to its promises when it's done in 30 years, for a boring megaproject we can start right now and that will very quickly start producing power.
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Pumped hydro is a great storage solution, as long as geography allows it.
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I wonder if it will one day be practical to emulate photosynthesis and use renewable power, captured CO2 and water to produce biofuel that could then be used at a later time.
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I think it's impossible to calculate at this stage since there're no fusion power plants which actually produce net power.
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True, but we've built tokamaks and we're building ITER, which so far has an estimated price of between $45 billion and $65 billion.

Now of course that's a research reactor full of experiments and instrumentation that wouldn't be part of a normal power plant, but given current experience that I think we can expect we won't suddenly knock down the cost to $100M. It's going to be somewhere in the billions. And we have expectations of that DEMO is going to make 750MWe.

We can then plug those estimates into the calculator and basically figure out how cheap and how powerful a fusion reactor has to be for it to make economical sense.

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Part of that cost is from ITER being so huge, which is because they use obsolete superconductors. CFS is doing the same thing in a reactor a tenth as big, using newer superconductors that support stronger magnetic fields.

The size and also the complicated governance have made ITER very slow to build, which also increases expense. The JET tokamak is about the size of the reactor CFS is building, and JET was built in a year for the reactor itself, plus three years before that for the building they put it in.

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I think a lot of the cost is custom parts. Standardization and economy of scale would bring the price down quite a bit.
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If that happens it will still take decades.

It took us a lot of time to standardize computers. We made lots of weird architectures before things settled down.

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The market never went that way with fission (except France?). What would be the difference with fusion?
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"and we might as well just throw renewables at the problem now instead of waiting."

We have spent about $10T on renewables over the last 20 years. We use more FF today than 20 years ago because renewables don't provide enough power to compensate for the normal yearly increase in energy demand (which is pathetic). The solution is nuclear (fission). It was the solution before we were born. It will be the solution after we die. No amount of politics and propaganda will ever change that. The laws of physics care nothing about what you think.

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And outputs for how much power would be generated by an equivalent-cost conventional fission or solar facility.
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